Bologna 4-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Pisa travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 October 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.
Pisa — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bologna at 0.90 PPG versus Pisa's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bologna register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Pisa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Bologna in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Pisa in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 56% versus Pisa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 51% | Pisa 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.73 xG and Pisa 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.160 / defence 0.876 | Pisa attack 0.991 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.166. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Bologna games / 5 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 53% | Draw 25% | Pisa 21%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Pisa 4.76. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 70% | Pisa 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Pisa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 53% | Draw 25% | Pisa 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Bologna 1.73 / Pisa 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.160 / def 0.876 | Pisa attack 0.991 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Bologna (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Pisa xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Pisa kick off?
Bologna vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Pisa?
Bologna 4 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Bologna vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Pisa part of?
Bologna vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 53% chance of winning, Pisa a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bologna and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bologna and Pisa in?
Bologna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Pisa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bologna's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
53%
1.87
25%
3.95
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.75
1.01
Pisa xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
4%
26.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Bologna and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Bologna and 1.01 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bologna come into this having played 43 games, going 18W 15D 10L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 1.77 PPG from 43 outings (22W 10D 11L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.60 PPG, Pisa on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bologna's home form reads 12W 7D 2L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Bologna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 1.52 points per game from 21 outings (9W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.51 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Pisa in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 18W 15D 10L in their last 43 games (1.60 PPG), while Pisa have gone 22W 10D 11L in their last 43 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Pisa away?
Bologna's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.05 PPG; Pisa away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Bologna or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Pisa in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bologna and Pisa runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Bologna
0
Draws
0
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Pisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Bologna have won 2, Pisa have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Pisa 0-1 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Pisa?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 62%, Pisa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Bologna) and 43% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Pisa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Bologna's games and 52% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bologna vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Bologna's recent games and 43% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Pisa tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Pisa in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bologna run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Pisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Pisa 4-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.73 xG and Pisa 1.01 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pisa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.16 / defence 0.88 against Pisa attack 0.99 / defence 1.25, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 53% | Draw 25% | Pisa 21%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 51%, Pisa 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pisa's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.60 PPG, Pisa 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.