Atalanta 3-0 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atalanta face Torino.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atalanta and Torino meet at Gewiss Stadium in Serie A (matchday 38). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Atalanta's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Atalanta have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Atalanta are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Torino (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Torino have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Atalanta edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Dec 2023, ended Atalanta 0–3 Torino — a Torino win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Atalanta half-time and goal-timing data (last 74 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Torino half-time and goal-timing data (last 74 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 55% versus Torino 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 57% | Torino 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.86 xG and Torino 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.350 / defence 0.867 | Torino attack 0.966 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.226. Atalanta carry an above-average attack rating of 1.350 — their 1.86 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Atalanta's last 74 games and Torino's last 75.
Result probabilities: Atalanta 56% | Draw 24% | Torino 20%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.78 | Draw 4.13 | Torino 5.07. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Atalanta's last 10 home games and Torino's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atalanta 50% (last 10 home games) | Torino 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, matchday 38 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 56% | Draw 24% | Torino 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Atalanta 1.86 / Torino 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.350 / def 0.867 | Torino attack 0.966 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Torino xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atalanta vs Torino FAQs
What time does Atalanta vs Torino kick off?
Atalanta vs Torino kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Torino?
Atalanta 3 - 0 Torino.
Where is Atalanta vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Torino part of?
Atalanta vs Torino is a Serie A fixture (matchday 38) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 56% chance of winning, Torino a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Atalanta and Torino will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atalanta vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Atalanta's attack rating (1.35) and Torino's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Torino's attack (0.97x) against Atalanta's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Atalanta's last 74 games and Torino's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.13
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.89
1.03
Torino xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
16%
6.43
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
3%
32.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atalanta vs Torino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.03 for Torino, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Torino?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 74 outings, Atalanta have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 39W 13D 22L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Torino's form line: 26W 25D 23L from 74 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Atalanta against 1.39 for Torino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 1.97 PPG from their last 36 home games (22W 5D 9L).
On the road, Torino have gone 13W 9D 14L from their last 36 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atalanta are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.03 scored and 0.99 conceded. Atalanta's scoring rate against Torino's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Torino in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Current Season
Torino
Current Season
Atalanta (Home) vs Torino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atalanta
Current Season
Torino
Current Season
❓ Atalanta vs Torino Form FAQs
What form are Atalanta and Torino in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 39W 13D 22L in their last 74 games (1.76 PPG), while Torino have gone 26W 25D 23L in their last 74 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Torino away?
Atalanta's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.97 PPG; Torino away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Torino in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 10 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Atalanta have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Torino won Torino 3-0 Atalanta on 4 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Torino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Atalanta
2
Draws
2
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Atalanta vs Torino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Torino?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atalanta have won 6, Torino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Torino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 January 2026: Atalanta 2-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Torino?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 58%, Torino 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Atalanta) and 39% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Torino in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atalanta vs Torino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atalanta and Torino matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Atalanta's recent matches and 50% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atalanta and Torino matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Atalanta's recent games and 39% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Torino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Atalanta's recent matches and 64% of Torino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atalanta run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Torino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Torino 3-0 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.86 xG and Torino 1.03 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Atalanta beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Torino landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.35 / defence 0.87 against Torino attack 0.97 / defence 1.01, drawn from 74/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 56% | Draw 24% | Torino 20%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 57%, Torino 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Torino's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.76 PPG, Torino 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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