Atalanta 2-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gewiss Stadium plays host to Atalanta versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Monday 12 May 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Atalanta's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Atalanta's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Gewiss Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gewiss Stadium this season.
AS Roma have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Serie A this season, AS Roma have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, AS Roma are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Across 6 previous meetings, Atalanta are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2024, ended 2–0 with Atalanta winning.
The historical record gives Atalanta a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Atalanta half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
AS Roma half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 49% versus AS Roma 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 59% | AS Roma 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 0.93 xG and AS Roma 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.001 / defence 0.944 | AS Roma attack 0.919 / defence 0.776. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.139. AS Roma's defence strength of 0.776 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 73 Atalanta games / 73 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 32% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 35%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | AS Roma 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Atalanta dominate the H2H record, yet AS Roma are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 50% | AS Roma 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 12 May 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 32% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Atalanta 0.93 / AS Roma 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.001 / def 0.944 | AS Roma attack 0.919 / def 0.776 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
0.99
AS Roma xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs AS Roma kick off?
Atalanta vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 12 May 2025 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Atalanta 2 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Atalanta vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs AS Roma part of?
Atalanta vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 32% chance of winning, AS Roma a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Atalanta and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and AS Roma?
Record (6 meetings): Atalanta 4W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Atalanta and AS Roma in?
Atalanta (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. AS Roma (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Atalanta's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.92x) against Atalanta's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
32%
3.17
33%
2.99
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Atalanta xG
Total xG
1.91
0.99
AS Roma xG
3.17
32%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
14%
7.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 14.6 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Atalanta and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.99 for AS Roma, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, Atalanta have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 41W 14D 18L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
AS Roma's form line: 36W 18D 19L from 73 games, 1.73 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.88 PPG for Atalanta against 1.73 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 1.94 PPG from 36 outings (21W 7D 8L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 12W 12D 12L from 36 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atalanta are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.58 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; AS Roma in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 41W 14D 18L in their last 73 games (1.88 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 36W 18D 19L in their last 73 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or AS Roma away?
Atalanta's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.94 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Atalanta or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, AS Roma in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Atalanta
2
Draws
2
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 6, AS Roma have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when AS Roma 2-1 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and AS Roma?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 56%, AS Roma 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Atalanta) and 47% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Atalanta's games and 58% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Atalanta's recent games and 47% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and AS Roma tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atalanta defy the odds to beat AS Roma 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat AS Roma 2-1 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 0.93 xG and AS Roma 0.99 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Atalanta beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against AS Roma attack 0.92 / defence 0.78, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 32% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 35%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Atalanta win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 59%, AS Roma 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.88 PPG, AS Roma 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.