St Patrick's Athl. 1-2 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 6 as St Patrick's Athl. welcome Shelbourne to Richmond Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record at Richmond Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Shelbourne — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Shelbourne have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shelbourne — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Shelbourne in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 46% versus Shelbourne 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Shelbourne 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 0.77 xG and Shelbourne 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.910 / defence 0.841 | Shelbourne attack 1.083 / defence 0.706. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.167. Shelbourne's defence strength of 0.706 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 St Patrick's Athl. games / 41 Shelbourne games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 26% | Draw 32% | Shelbourne 42%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Shelbourne 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — St Patrick's Athl.'s lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Shelbourne 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (41 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 15 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 26% | Draw 32% | Shelbourne 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 0.77 / Shelbourne 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.910 / def 0.841 | Shelbourne attack 1.083 / def 0.706 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Shelbourne xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 15 March 2024 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 2 Shelbourne.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 26% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
St Patrick's Athl.'s attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.77. The same calculation in reverse, Shelbourne's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (41/41 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
26%
3.82
32%
3.12
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
1.83
1.06
Shelbourne xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
9%
11.04
19%
5.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 17.0 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.06 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St Patrick's Athl.'s recent record stands at 37W 12D 23L from 72 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Shelbourne, meanwhile, have gone 25W 26D 21L across 72 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.71 PPG, Shelbourne on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, St Patrick's Athl. have managed 20W 6D 10L from 36 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shelbourne's away record stands at 11W 13D 12L across 36 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.17 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 37W 12D 23L in their last 72 games (1.71 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 25W 26D 21L in their last 72 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Shelbourne away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.83 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.28 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Shelbourne specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St Patrick's Athl.
2
Draws
6
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, Shelbourne have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 39%, Shelbourne 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 33% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Shelbourne in 39%; Shelbourne in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Shelbourne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 42% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 33% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out St Patrick's Athl. 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-2 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 0.77 xG and Shelbourne 1.06 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shelbourne outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.91 / defence 0.84 against Shelbourne attack 1.08 / defence 0.71, drawn from 41/41 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 26% | Draw 32% | Shelbourne 42%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Shelbourne 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 PPG, Shelbourne 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.