Galway United 0-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Galway United face Shamrock Rovers.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Galway United welcome Shamrock Rovers to Eamonn Deacy Park in Premier Division (matchday 6). Kick-off is Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shamrock Rovers stand at 6W 4D 0L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Shamrock Rovers's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Galway United 0.75 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Galway United attack 0.702 / defence 0.938 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.878 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.167. Galway United's attack rating of 0.702 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.75. Data: built from Galway United's last 5 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 40. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Galway United 27% | Draw 34% | Shamrock Rovers 39%. Fair-value odds: Galway United 3.66 | Draw 2.97 | Shamrock Rovers 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Galway United's lower xG of 0.75 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.71 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 75% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Galway United 5 games, Shamrock Rovers 40) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 6 | Venue: Eamonn Deacy Park • Kick-off: Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Galway United 27% | Draw 34% | Shamrock Rovers 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% (Under 75%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Galway United 0.75 / Shamrock Rovers 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Galway United attack 0.702 / def 0.938 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.878 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Galway United xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Shamrock Rovers xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers FAQs
What time does Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 15 March 2024 at Eamonn Deacy Park.
What was the final score in Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers?
Galway United 0 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Eamonn Deacy Park.
What competition is Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 6) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Galway United a 27% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 39% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Galway United and Shamrock Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (75%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Galway United's attack rating (0.70) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus Galway United's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Galway United's last 5 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 40, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
27%
3.66
34%
2.97
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Galway United xG
Total xG
1.71
0.96
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.66
27%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.07
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
10%
9.59
18%
5.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.1 | 17.4 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.7%.
How many goals are Galway United and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Galway United and 0.96 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Galway United
Pre-Season
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Galway United (Home) vs Shamrock Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Galway United
Pre-Season
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Galway United's record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Galway United
3
Draws
6
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Galway United and Shamrock Rovers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Galway United have won 1, Shamrock Rovers have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Galway United and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Galway United 2-0 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Galway United and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Galway United home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Galway United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Galway United 0-1 at Eamonn Deacy Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Galway United 0.75 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.96 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galway United attack 0.70 / defence 0.94 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.88 / defence 0.89, drawn from 5/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Galway United 27% | Draw 34% | Shamrock Rovers 39%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.