Shelbourne 1-0 UCD – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 63% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shelbourne vs UCD encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shelbourne and UCD meet at Tolka Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 May 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Shelbourne (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Shelbourne's home record at Tolka Park: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
UCD have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, UCD have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.30 for UCD. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Shelbourne, 0 for UCD and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.2 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Shelbourne half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
UCD half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus UCD 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 42% | UCD 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.71 xG and UCD 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.903 / defence 0.763 | UCD attack 0.689 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.237. UCD bring a strong defensive rating of 1.420 — this is suppressing Shelbourne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shelbourne's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Shelbourne games / 49 UCD games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 63% | Draw 23% | UCD 14%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | UCD 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Shelbourne (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 40% | UCD 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 63% | Draw 23% | UCD 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 39% | xG Shelbourne 1.71 / UCD 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.903 / def 0.763 | UCD attack 0.689 / def 1.420 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.65
UCD xG
39%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs UCD kick off?
Shelbourne vs UCD kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 5 May 2023 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs UCD?
Shelbourne 1 - 0 UCD.
Where is Shelbourne vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs UCD part of?
Shelbourne vs UCD is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 63% chance of winning, UCD a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Shelbourne and UCD will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and UCD?
Record (5 meetings): Shelbourne 2W | Draws 3 | UCD 0W.
What form are Shelbourne and UCD in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. UCD (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shelbourne's attack at 0.90x the league average against UCD's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — UCD's attack (0.69x) against Shelbourne's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
63%
1.59
23%
4.29
14%
7.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.36
0.65
UCD xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
7.30
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
18%
5.54
Win to Nil
33%
3.04
2%
40.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 10.5 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.65 for UCD, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs UCD?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shelbourne come into this having played 36 games, going 10W 11D 15L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, UCD sit at 0.81 PPG from 36 outings (7W 8D 21L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Shelbourne against 0.81 for UCD. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Shelbourne's home form reads 5W 6D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, UCD have taken 0.71 points per game from 17 outings (3W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 0.81 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
UCD
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and UCD in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 10W 11D 15L in their last 36 games (1.14 PPG), while UCD have gone 7W 8D 21L in their last 36 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or UCD away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.24 PPG; UCD away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shelbourne have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shelbourne won 0-4 on 7 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against UCD — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Shelbourne
3
Draws
0
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and UCD?
From 8 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 5, UCD have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and UCD last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2023, when Shelbourne 3-2 UCD.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and UCD?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 47%, UCD 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Shelbourne) and 47% (UCD).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne have failed to score in 35% of games; UCD in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play UCD?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 41% of UCD's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs UCD usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Shelbourne's recent games and 47% of UCD's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and UCD tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, UCD in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out UCD 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat UCD 1-0 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.71 xG and UCD 0.65 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.90 / defence 0.76 against UCD attack 0.69 / defence 1.42, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 63% | Draw 23% | UCD 14%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 42%, UCD 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
UCD's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.14 PPG, UCD 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. Shelbourne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. UCD (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.