Drogheda United 0-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derry City at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Drogheda United vs Derry City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Drogheda United and Derry City meet at Weavers Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 May 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Drogheda United have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Drogheda United's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Weavers Park this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Drogheda United are significantly better at Weavers Park than their overall form suggests.
Derry City (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Derry City away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Derry City are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Drogheda United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 49% versus Derry City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 40% | Derry City 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 0.84 xG and Derry City 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.792 / defence 1.053 | Derry City attack 1.313 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.237. Drogheda United's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Derry City's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Derry City have an above-average attack strength of 1.313 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Drogheda United games / 49 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 18% | Draw 24% | Derry City 58%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 5.56 | Draw 4.17 | Derry City 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Derry City (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Drogheda United 40% | Derry City 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 18% | Draw 24% | Derry City 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 46% | xG Drogheda United 0.84 / Derry City 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.792 / def 1.053 | Derry City attack 1.313 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Derry City (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Derry City xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Derry City kick off?
Drogheda United vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 5 May 2023 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Drogheda United 0 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Drogheda United vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Derry City part of?
Drogheda United vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 18% chance of winning, Derry City a 58% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Drogheda United and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Drogheda United and Derry City in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Derry City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Drogheda United's attack rating (0.79) and Derry City's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (1.31x) against Drogheda United's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-2 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
18%
5.53
24%
4.19
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.55
1.71
Derry City xG
5.53
18%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
3%
30.60
25%
3.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 13.4 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.71 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Drogheda United's recent record stands at 21W 19D 32L from 72 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Derry City, meanwhile, have gone 32W 24D 16L across 72 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derry City by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Drogheda United heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Drogheda United have managed 14W 10D 12L from 36 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derry City's away record stands at 18W 9D 9L across 36 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Drogheda United are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.42 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and Derry City in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 21W 19D 32L in their last 72 games (1.14 PPG), while Derry City have gone 32W 24D 16L in their last 72 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.44 PPG; Derry City away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Derry City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 5-1 on 28 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Drogheda United
4
Draws
3
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 3, Derry City have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Derry City 2-0 Drogheda United.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Drogheda United see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 47%, Derry City 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Drogheda United) and 44% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 56% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Drogheda United vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Drogheda United's recent games and 44% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Derry City tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Derry City in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Drogheda United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Drogheda United 0-1 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 0.84 xG and Derry City 1.71 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Drogheda United fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.79 / defence 1.05 against Derry City attack 1.31 / defence 0.79, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 18% | Draw 24% | Derry City 58%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 40%, Derry City 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Derry City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.