Shelbourne 1-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Shelbourne welcome St Patrick's Athl. to Tolka Park in Premier Division (matchday 12). Kick-off is Friday 26 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shelbourne have gone 6W 3D 1L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shelbourne's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
On current form, Shelbourne have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Shelbourne in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus St Patrick's Athl. 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 36% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.15 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.957 / defence 0.851 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.806 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 0.979. Data: built from Shelbourne's last 48 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 48.
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 46% | Draw 33% | St Patrick's Athl. 21%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.17 | Draw 3.01 | St Patrick's Athl. 4.85. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — St Patrick's Athl.'s lower xG of 0.67 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 73% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Shelbourne 80% (last 10 home games) | St Patrick's Athl. 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 12 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 26 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 46% | Draw 33% | St Patrick's Athl. 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Shelbourne 1.15 / St Patrick's Athl. 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.957 / def 0.851 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.806 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.130 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.67
St Patrick's Athl. xG
34%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. FAQs
What time does Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 26 April 2024 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Shelbourne 1 - 0 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 12) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 46% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (0.96) and St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Shelbourne's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shelbourne's last 48 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.0%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
46%
2.17
33%
3.01
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
1.82
0.67
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
7%
15.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 10.9 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 12.5 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.67 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shelbourne's recent record stands at 25W 26D 21L from 72 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 37W 12D 23L across 72 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shelbourne on 1.40 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shelbourne have managed 14W 13D 9L from their last 36 home games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 17W 6D 13L across their last 36 away games, a 1.58 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Shelbourne are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.61 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Shelbourne (Home) vs St Patrick's Athl. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shelbourne
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. Form FAQs
What form are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 25W 26D 21L in their last 72 games (1.40 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 37W 12D 23L in their last 72 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.53 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shelbourne's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shelbourne
2
Draws
3
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl.?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shelbourne have won 5, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: St Patrick's Athl. 1-2 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl.?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 53%, St Patrick's Athl. 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Shelbourne) and 58% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Shelbourne's recent games and 58% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 69% of St Patrick's Athl.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out St Patrick's Athl. 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.15 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.67 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.96 / defence 0.85 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 46% | Draw 33% | St Patrick's Athl. 21%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 36%, St Patrick's Athl. 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.40 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. Shelbourne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.