Waterford 0-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Derry City at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waterford host Derry City at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Waterford — All Games: 1W 0D 1L from 2 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Waterford have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Derry City have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Derry City have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Waterford at 1.50 PPG versus Derry City's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 0.95 xG and Derry City 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.846 / defence 1.099 | Derry City attack 1.057 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 0.979. Data: 11 Waterford games / 48 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 29% | Draw 32% | Derry City 39%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Derry City 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 29% | Draw 32% | Derry City 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Waterford 0.95 / Derry City 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.846 / def 1.099 | Derry City attack 1.057 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.130 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: Derry City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Derry City xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Derry City kick off?
Waterford vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Derry City?
Waterford 0 - 2 Derry City.
Where is Waterford vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Derry City part of?
Waterford vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 29% chance of winning, Derry City a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Waterford and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waterford and Derry City in?
Waterford (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W. Derry City (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Waterford's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
29%
3.42
32%
3.13
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.09
1.14
Derry City xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
9%
10.68
15%
6.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 14.1 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Waterford and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Waterford and 1.14 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waterford come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W. It's still early in the season for Waterford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Derry City sit at 3.00 PPG from 2 outings (2W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Derry City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Derry City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Waterford — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Waterford are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Derry City's attacking output running into Waterford's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City in 0%.
Defensively: Derry City in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Early Season
Derry City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and Derry City in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Derry City have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Waterford or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Derry City in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waterford and Derry City runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jul 2025, when Derry City won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waterford's record when hosting Derry City specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Waterford
1
Draws
6
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 3, Derry City have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Derry City 2-4 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Waterford's recent matches and 0% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waterford vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Waterford's recent games and 50% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Derry City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Waterford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Waterford 0-2 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 0.95 xG and Derry City 1.14 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Waterford fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Derry City outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.85 / defence 1.10 against Derry City attack 1.06 / defence 0.99, drawn from 11/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 29% | Draw 32% | Derry City 39%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 50%, Derry City 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. Waterford managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.