Volos NFC 0-2 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 42%, yet in-form Aris Thessalonikis provide a compelling counter-argument — this Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Aris Thessalonikis travel to Panthessaliko Stadio to take on Volos NFC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 November 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Volos NFC have posted 1W 1D 8L at Panthessaliko Stadio — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Aris Thessalonikis are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Volos NFC, 2 for Aris Thessalonikis and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2023, ended 2–4 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 40% versus Aris Thessalonikis 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 56% | Aris Thessalonikis 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.68 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 1.027 / defence 1.293 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.909 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.135. Data: 35 Volos NFC games / 36 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 42% | Draw 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 27%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Volos NFC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Aris Thessalonikis (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 42% | Draw 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Volos NFC 1.68 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 1.027 / def 1.293 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.909 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Aris Thessalonikis xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Volos NFC 0 - 2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 42% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (2 meetings): Volos NFC 0W | Draws 0 | Aris Thessalonikis 2W.
What form are Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Volos NFC's attack at 1.03x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.28
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
3.01
1.33
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
11%
8.97
5%
19.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.33 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 12W 10D 23L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 18W 8D 19L from 45 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 1.02 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Volos NFC have posted 0.95 PPG from 22 outings (6W 3D 13L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 5D 13L from 22 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aris Thessalonikis's season.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.47 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 12W 10D 23L in their last 45 games (1.02 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 18W 8D 19L in their last 45 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Volos NFC's home record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 0.95 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Aris Thessalonikis won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Volos NFC
2
Draws
7
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 1, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Volos NFC 1-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 50%, Aris Thessalonikis 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Volos NFC) and 50% (Aris Thessalonikis). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Volos NFC have failed to score in 41% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 41% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Volos NFC's matches and 50% of Aris Thessalonikis's.
Do Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Volos NFC 0-2 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.68 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.33 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Volos NFC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 1.03 / defence 1.29 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.91 / defence 1.06, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 42% | Draw 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 27%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Aris Thessalonikis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 56%, Aris Thessalonikis 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.02 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.