AEK Athens FC 3-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AEK Athens FC face Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 11 as AEK Athens FC welcome Lamia to OPAP Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 November 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
AEK Athens FC — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at OPAP Arena, AEK Athens FC have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at OPAP Arena.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
AEK Athens FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of AEK Athens FC: 4 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Lamia, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2022, ended 3–0 with AEK Athens FC winning.
The historical record gives AEK Athens FC a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Lamia in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 37% versus Lamia 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 51% | Lamia 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.70 xG and Lamia 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.115 / defence 0.726 | Lamia attack 0.787 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.155. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.726 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 AEK Athens FC games / 36 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 59% | Draw 30% | Lamia 11%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.69 | Draw 3.33 | Lamia 9.09. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (59%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AEK Athens FC at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AEK Athens FC 40% | Lamia 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 59% | Draw 30% | Lamia 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.70 / Lamia 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.115 / def 0.726 | Lamia attack 0.787 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Lamia xG
43%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Lamia kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Lamia kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
AEK Athens FC 3 - 0 Lamia.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Lamia part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 59% chance of winning, Lamia a 11% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Lamia?
Record (4 meetings): AEK Athens FC 4W | Draws 0 | Lamia 0W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Lamia in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Lamia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AEK Athens FC's attack rating (1.11) and Lamia's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus AEK Athens FC's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.7%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
59%
1.68
30%
3.37
11%
9.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.36
0.66
Lamia xG
1.68
59%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
9.20
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
31%
3.25
2%
50.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 10.6 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.66 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AEK Athens FC's recent record stands at 30W 8D 5L from 43 games, a 2.28 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamia, meanwhile, have gone 9W 17D 17L across 43 games — 1.02 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AEK Athens FC by 1.26 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamia heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AEK Athens FC have managed 16W 4D 1L from 21 games — 2.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lamia's away record stands at 2W 10D 9L across 21 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.79 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Lamia in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 30W 8D 5L in their last 43 games (2.28 PPG), while Lamia have gone 9W 17D 17L in their last 43 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Lamia away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.48 PPG; Lamia away: 0.76 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Lamia in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AEK Athens FC and Lamia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2024, when AEK Athens FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AEK Athens FC's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
0
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 9, Lamia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2024, when Lamia 0-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Lamia?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 33%, Lamia 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (AEK Athens FC) and 38% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Lamia in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 38% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 38% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and Lamia tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lamia in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Lamia 3-0 at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.70 xG and Lamia 0.66 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AEK Athens FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.11 / defence 0.73 against Lamia attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 59% | Draw 30% | Lamia 11%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 51%, Lamia 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lamia's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.