PAS Giannina 0-1 OFI – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates OFI at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAS Giannina vs OFI encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Zosimades plays host to PAS Giannina versus OFI in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 2). Kick-off: Saturday 1 April 2023 at 18:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

PAS Giannina have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

PAS Giannina's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — PAS Giannina are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

OFI's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

OFI's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. OFI are 0.60 PPG clear of PAS Giannina over their recent games (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 4 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Feb 2023, ended PAS Giannina 0–0 OFI — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

PAS Giannina half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

OFI half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 45% versus OFI 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 40% | OFI 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: PAS Giannina surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while OFI have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 0.93 xG and OFI 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.789 / defence 1.035 | OFI attack 1.231 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 0.998. PAS Giannina's attack rating of 0.789 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. OFI have an above-average attack rating of 1.231, which lifts their away xG to 1.27. Data: built from PAS Giannina's last 52 games and OFI's last 52.

Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 23% | Draw 36% | OFI 40%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 4.29 | Draw 2.75 | OFI 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OFI if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: PAS Giannina 50% (last 10 home games) | OFI 50% (last 10 away games).

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