OFI 1-1 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as OFI take on Levadiakos.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 1 as OFI welcome Levadiakos to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 March 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's home record at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Levadiakos — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
OFI carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, OFI have won 1, Levadiakos 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Levadiakos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
OFI in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Levadiakos in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 38% versus Levadiakos 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 42% | Levadiakos 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.05 xG and Levadiakos 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.580 / defence 1.229 | Levadiakos attack 0.644 / defence 1.458. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 0.997. OFI's attack strength of 0.580 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.458 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 OFI games / 26 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 37% | Draw 40% | Levadiakos 23%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.70 | Draw 2.50 | Levadiakos 4.35. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 23% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: OFI 20% | Levadiakos 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 37% | Draw 40% | Levadiakos 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 40% | xG OFI 1.05 / Levadiakos 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.580 / def 1.229 | Levadiakos attack 0.644 / def 1.458 | league avg home 1.246 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Levadiakos xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Levadiakos kick off?
OFI vs Levadiakos kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Levadiakos?
OFI 1 - 1 Levadiakos.
Where is OFI vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Levadiakos part of?
OFI vs Levadiakos is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 37% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 23% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both OFI and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Levadiakos?
Record (2 meetings): OFI 1W | Draws 0 | Levadiakos 1W.
What form are OFI and Levadiakos in?
OFI (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OFI's attack rating (0.58) and Levadiakos's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.69
40%
2.51
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
OFI xG
Total xG
1.84
0.79
Levadiakos xG
2.69
37%
Home win
2.51
40%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
8%
12.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are OFI and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for OFI and 0.79 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, OFI have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 6W 8D 12L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos's form line: 3W 8D 15L from 26 games, 0.65 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.00 PPG, Levadiakos on 0.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 0.77 PPG from 13 outings (2W 4D 7L).
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 0W 3D 10L from 13 away games — 0.23 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Levadiakos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.54 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 6W 8D 12L in their last 26 games (1.00 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 3W 8D 15L in their last 26 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Levadiakos away?
OFI's home record (0.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 0.77 PPG; Levadiakos away: 0.23 PPG.
Have OFI or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Levadiakos runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2025, when Levadiakos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
OFI
3
Draws
3
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Levadiakos?
From 9 meetings on record, OFI have won 3, Levadiakos have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Levadiakos 3-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — OFI 31% BTTS, Levadiakos 31%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (OFI) and 54% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; OFI have failed to score in 62% of games; Levadiakos in 69%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of OFI's recent matches and 31% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of OFI's recent games and 54% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Levadiakos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OFI and Levadiakos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Relegation Round - 1, as OFI and Levadiakos drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.05 xG and Levadiakos 0.79 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.58 / defence 1.23 against Levadiakos attack 0.64 / defence 1.46, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 37% | Draw 40% | Levadiakos 23%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 42%, Levadiakos 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Levadiakos's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.00 PPG, Levadiakos 0.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Levadiakos (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.