OFI 0-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as OFI face Levadiakos.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
OFI welcome Levadiakos to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Super League 1 (matchday 18). Kick-off is Monday 13 January 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, OFI stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
OFI's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Levadiakos — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 3L across their last 8 road games (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (OFI) versus 1.30 (Levadiakos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from OFI's last 10 home games and Levadiakos's last 8 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for OFI, 1 for Levadiakos and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2024, ended OFI 1–1 Levadiakos — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
OFI in-play tendencies (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Levadiakos in-play tendencies (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — OFI 59% and Levadiakos 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 59% | Levadiakos 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: OFI surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Levadiakos have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.78 xG and Levadiakos 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.170 / defence 1.104 | Levadiakos attack 1.135 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.210. Levadiakos's defence rating of 1.259 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing OFI's projected output up. Data: built from OFI's last 43 games and Levadiakos's last 17.
Result probabilities: OFI 44% | Draw 23% | Levadiakos 33%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.26 | Draw 4.38 | Levadiakos 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.78 / 1.52) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (OFI's last 10 home games and Levadiakos's last 8 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OFI 70% (last 10 home games) | Levadiakos 88% (last 8 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 18 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Monday 13 January 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 44% | Draw 23% | Levadiakos 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG OFI 1.78 / Levadiakos 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.170 / def 1.104 | Levadiakos attack 1.135 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: OFI (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Levadiakos xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OFI vs Levadiakos FAQs
What time does OFI vs Levadiakos kick off?
OFI vs Levadiakos kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Monday 13 January 2025 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Levadiakos?
OFI 0 - 0 Levadiakos.
Where is OFI vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Levadiakos part of?
OFI vs Levadiakos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 18) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 44% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both OFI and Levadiakos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will OFI vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.17) and Levadiakos's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from OFI's last 43 games and Levadiakos's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
44%
2.26
23%
4.38
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
OFI xG
Total xG
3.30
1.52
Levadiakos xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
17%
5.96
Win to Nil
10%
10.29
6%
18.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.0 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OFI vs Levadiakos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are OFI and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for OFI and 1.52 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, OFI have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 6W 5D 6L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Levadiakos's form line: 3W 8D 6L from 17 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.35 PPG, Levadiakos on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 8 home games (2W 2D 4L).
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 1W 4D 3L from their last 8 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.18 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos in 65%.
Last 17 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
OFI (Home) vs Levadiakos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OFI
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ OFI vs Levadiakos Form FAQs
What form are OFI and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 games (1.35 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 3W 8D 6L in their last 17 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Levadiakos away?
OFI's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.00 PPG; Levadiakos away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 13 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Sep 2025, when Levadiakos won Levadiakos 4-0 OFI.
OFI's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
OFI
3
Draws
3
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ OFI vs Levadiakos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Levadiakos?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, OFI have won 3, Levadiakos have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Levadiakos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 May 2026: Levadiakos 3-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — OFI at 62%, Levadiakos at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for OFI and 62% for Levadiakos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OFI vs Levadiakos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OFI and Levadiakos matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of OFI's games and 88% of Levadiakos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are OFI and Levadiakos matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of OFI's matches and 62% of Levadiakos's.
Do OFI and Levadiakos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of OFI's recent matches and 75% of Levadiakos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at OFI's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 18, as OFI and Levadiakos drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.78 xG and Levadiakos 1.52 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. OFI fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Levadiakos landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.17 / defence 1.10 against Levadiakos attack 1.14 / defence 1.26, drawn from 43/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 44% | Draw 23% | Levadiakos 33%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 59%, Levadiakos 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Levadiakos's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.35 PPG, Levadiakos 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.