Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Super League 1 (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 January 2025 at 18:30 UK time.
Form
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Aris Thessalonikis's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Aris Thessalonikis away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Olympiakos Piraeus. A 1.00 PPG lead over Aris Thessalonikis (2.30 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Olympiakos Piraeus, 2 for Aris Thessalonikis and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Olympiakos Piraeus 1–2 Aris Thessalonikis — a Aris Thessalonikis win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 49% versus Aris Thessalonikis 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 58% | Aris Thessalonikis 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.97 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.316 / defence 0.780 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.931 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.172. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack rating of 1.316 — their 1.97 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating of 1.229 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output up. Olympiakos Piraeus have a tight defence (rating 0.780), which is pulling Aris Thessalonikis's projected output down. Data: built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 43 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 43.
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 64% | Draw 21% | Aris Thessalonikis 15%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.57 | Draw 4.78 | Aris Thessalonikis 6.49. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (64%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 home games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Olympiakos Piraeus 50% (last 10 home games) | Aris Thessalonikis 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 18 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Saturday 11 January 2025 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 64% | Draw 21% | Aris Thessalonikis 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.97 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.316 / def 0.780 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.931 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Aris Thessalonikis xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis FAQs
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 11 January 2025 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Olympiakos Piraeus 2 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 18) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 64% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.32x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.93x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 43 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
64%
1.57
21%
4.78
15%
6.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.83
0.85
Aris Thessalonikis xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
6.49
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
14%
7.20
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
2%
46.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.85 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 34W 10D 9L from 53 games, a 2.11 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Aris Thessalonikis, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 19L across 53 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aris Thessalonikis heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 20W 3D 3L from their last 26 home games — 2.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record stands at 9W 5D 12L across their last 26 away games, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.36 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus (Home) vs Aris Thessalonikis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis Form FAQs
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 34W 10D 9L in their last 53 games (2.11 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 24W 10D 19L in their last 53 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.42 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis, the earliest from April 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 14 December 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won Olympiakos Piraeus 4-1 Aris Thessalonikis on 27 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Olympiakos Piraeus
3
Draws
2
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 December 2025: Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 54%, Aris Thessalonikis 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 77% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 38% (Aris Thessalonikis). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 38%; Aris Thessalonikis in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 38% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 38% of Aris Thessalonikis's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 73% of Aris Thessalonikis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Aris Thessalonikis 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.97 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.85 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.32 / defence 0.78 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.93 / defence 1.23, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 64% | Draw 21% | Aris Thessalonikis 15%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 58%, Aris Thessalonikis 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.55. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.