OFI 1-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as OFI take on Asteras Tripolis.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 4 as OFI welcome Asteras Tripolis to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 April 2023 at 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, OFI have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Asteras Tripolis — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Asteras Tripolis away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (OFI) versus 1.00 (Asteras Tripolis). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. OFI's 30% rate and Asteras Tripolis's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Data
OFI trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Asteras Tripolis trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 48% versus Asteras Tripolis 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (OFI 47% | Asteras Tripolis 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 0.94 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.645 / defence 1.187 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.674 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 0.999. OFI's attack strength of 0.645 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 OFI games / 52 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 33% | Draw 41% | Asteras Tripolis 25%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.03 | Draw 2.44 | Asteras Tripolis 4.00. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.74 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 30% | Asteras Tripolis 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 33% | Draw 41% | Asteras Tripolis 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 38% | xG OFI 0.94 / Asteras Tripolis 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.645 / def 1.187 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.674 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.245 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Asteras Tripolis xG
38%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
OFI vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
OFI 1 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is OFI vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
OFI vs Asteras Tripolis is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 33% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 25% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both OFI and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Asteras Tripolis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OFI and Asteras Tripolis in?
OFI (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (0.65) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
41%
2.42
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
OFI xG
Total xG
1.74
0.80
Asteras Tripolis xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.42
41%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.67
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
10%
10.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 14.0 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are OFI and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for OFI and 0.80 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OFI come into this having played 62 games, going 19W 20D 23L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 1.11 PPG from 62 outings (16W 21D 25L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.24 PPG, Asteras Tripolis on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
OFI's home form reads 9W 8D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Asteras Tripolis have taken 0.73 points per game from 30 outings (4W 10D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.87 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Current Season
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 19W 20D 23L in their last 62 games (1.24 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 16W 21D 25L in their last 62 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
OFI's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.17 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.73 PPG.
Have OFI or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2026, when OFI won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OFI
2
Draws
6
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, Asteras Tripolis have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when OFI 2-2 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Asteras Tripolis?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Asteras Tripolis see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 53%, Asteras Tripolis 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (OFI) and 30% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: OFI have failed to score in 33% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of OFI's recent matches and 33% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of OFI's recent games and 30% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OFI and Asteras Tripolis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI and Asteras Tripolis finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Relegation Round - 4, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 0.94 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.80 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.65 / defence 1.19 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.67 / defence 1.17, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 33% | Draw 41% | Asteras Tripolis 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 47%, Asteras Tripolis 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.24 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.