OFI 1-2 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs AEK Athens FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees AEK Athens FC travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 December 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, OFI have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AEK Athens FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AEK Athens FC are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for OFI, 4 for AEK Athens FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 0–3 with AEK Athens FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 56% versus AEK Athens FC 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 54% | AEK Athens FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.17 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.932 / defence 1.193 | AEK Athens FC attack 0.805 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.244. Data: 39 OFI games / 39 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 34% | Draw 31% | AEK Athens FC 35%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | AEK Athens FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AEK Athens FC at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: OFI 60% | AEK Athens FC 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 34% | Draw 31% | AEK Athens FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG OFI 1.17 / AEK Athens FC 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.932 / def 1.193 | AEK Athens FC attack 0.805 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.20
AEK Athens FC xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
OFI vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs AEK Athens FC?
OFI 1 - 2 AEK Athens FC.
Where is OFI vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs AEK Athens FC part of?
OFI vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 34% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both OFI and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and AEK Athens FC?
Record (7 meetings): OFI 2W | Draws 1 | AEK Athens FC 4W.
What form are OFI and AEK Athens FC in?
OFI (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
OFI's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against AEK Athens FC's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, AEK Athens FC's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
34%
2.93
31%
3.28
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
OFI xG
Total xG
2.37
1.20
AEK Athens FC xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
10%
9.67
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are OFI and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for OFI and 1.20 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OFI's recent record stands at 11W 18D 17L from 46 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AEK Athens FC, meanwhile, have gone 29W 10D 7L across 46 games — 2.11 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AEK Athens FC by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OFI heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, OFI have managed 8W 8D 7L from 23 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AEK Athens FC's away record stands at 10W 6D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AEK Athens FC's season.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 2.09 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 11W 18D 17L in their last 46 games (1.11 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 29W 10D 7L in their last 46 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or AEK Athens FC away?
AEK Athens FC's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.39 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.57 PPG.
Have OFI or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 21 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AEK Athens FC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2022, when AEK Athens FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting AEK Athens FC specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OFI
1
Draws
7
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, AEK Athens FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OFI and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2025, when AEK Athens FC 2-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 56%, AEK Athens FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (OFI) and 61% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of OFI's recent matches and 52% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of OFI's recent games and 61% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AEK Athens FC edge out OFI 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat OFI 1-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.17 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AEK Athens FC outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.93 / defence 1.19 against AEK Athens FC attack 0.81 / defence 0.97, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 34% | Draw 31% | AEK Athens FC 35%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 54%, AEK Athens FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. OFI (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.