Levadiakos 0-1 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AEK Athens FC make the trip to Levadia Stadium to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levadiakos have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos at Levadia Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AEK Athens FC (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. AEK Athens FC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AEK Athens FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Levadiakos. A 1.30 PPG lead over AEK Athens FC (2.00 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across the last 4 meetings, AEK Athens FC have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Levadiakos's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that AEK Athens FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 62% versus AEK Athens FC 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 53% | AEK Athens FC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.46 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.166 / defence 1.135 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.026 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.135. Data: 28 Levadiakos games / 28 AEK Athens FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 41% | Draw 25% | AEK Athens FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | AEK Athens FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
AEK Athens FC lead the H2H ledger, but Levadiakos carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levadiakos at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 70% | AEK Athens FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 41% | Draw 25% | AEK Athens FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Levadiakos 1.46 / AEK Athens FC 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 1.166 / def 1.135 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.026 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.32
AEK Athens FC xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Levadia Stadium.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Levadiakos 0 - 1 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 41% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC?
Record (4 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 1 | AEK Athens FC 3W.
What form are Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Levadiakos's attack at 1.17x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.03x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
41%
2.47
25%
3.95
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.79
1.32
AEK Athens FC xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
8%
12.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.32 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 14W 10D 10L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AEK Athens FC's form line: 18W 5D 11L from 34 games, 1.74 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Levadiakos against 1.74 for AEK Athens FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Levadiakos have posted 1.50 PPG from 16 outings (7W 3D 6L).
On the road, AEK Athens FC have gone 7W 2D 7L from 16 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.50 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
AEK Athens FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 14W 10D 10L in their last 34 games (1.53 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 18W 5D 11L in their last 34 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or AEK Athens FC away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.50 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AEK Athens FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 4-0 on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Levadiakos
1
Draws
5
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 0, AEK Athens FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when AEK Athens FC 4-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 62%, AEK Athens FC 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Levadiakos) and 44% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC in 38%; AEK Athens FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 31% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Levadiakos's recent games and 44% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AEK Athens FC defy the odds to beat Levadiakos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Levadiakos 0-1 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.46 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.32 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Levadiakos fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.17 / defence 1.14 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 41% | Draw 25% | AEK Athens FC 34%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual AEK Athens FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 53%, AEK Athens FC 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.53 PPG, AEK Athens FC 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.