Lamia 0-2 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (65%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Lamia face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lamia welcome PAOK to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1 (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 3 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lamia have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Lamia have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PAOK — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, PAOK have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PAOK are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Lamia's games and 60% of PAOK's (from Lamia's last 10 home games and PAOK's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
PAOK have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Lamia.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Dec 2023, ended Lamia 0–3 PAOK — a PAOK win.
PAOK have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Lamia trading profile (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
PAOK trading profile (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 52% versus PAOK 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 52% | PAOK 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lamia surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while PAOK have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.15 xG and PAOK 2.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.976 / defence 1.134 | PAOK attack 1.603 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.347. PAOK bring a tight defence (rating 0.733, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Lamia's projected output down. PAOK have an above-average attack rating of 1.603, which lifts their away xG to 2.45. Data: built from Lamia's last 51 games and PAOK's last 51.
Result probabilities: Lamia 15% | Draw 21% | PAOK 65%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 6.76 | Draw 4.86 | PAOK 1.55. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (65%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.15 / 2.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lamia's last 10 home games and PAOK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamia 70% (last 10 home games) | PAOK 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 26 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 15% | Draw 21% | PAOK 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Lamia 1.15 / PAOK 2.45 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.976 / def 1.134 | PAOK attack 1.603 / def 0.733 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: PAOK (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
2.45
PAOK xG
64%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lamia vs PAOK FAQs
What time does Lamia vs PAOK kick off?
Lamia vs PAOK kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs PAOK?
Lamia 0 - 2 PAOK.
Where is Lamia vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs PAOK part of?
Lamia vs PAOK is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 26) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 15% chance of winning, PAOK a 65% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Lamia and PAOK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lamia vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.98x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 2.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lamia's last 51 games and PAOK's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
15%
6.76
21%
4.86
65%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.2%
Away win
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Lamia xG
Total xG
3.60
2.45
PAOK xG
6.76
15%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
1.55
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
9%
11.59
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
1%
78.35
21%
4.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lamia vs PAOK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Lamia and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Lamia and 2.45 for PAOK, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Lamia have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 14W 21D 23L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
PAOK's form line: 35W 12D 11L from 58 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lamia have posted 1.32 PPG from their last 28 home games (10W 7D 11L).
On the road, PAOK have gone 16W 6D 6L from their last 28 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.03 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
PAOK
Blended
Lamia (Home) vs PAOK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lamia
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Lamia vs PAOK Form FAQs
What form are Lamia and PAOK in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 14W 21D 23L in their last 58 games (1.09 PPG), while PAOK have gone 35W 12D 11L in their last 58 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.32 PPG; PAOK away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Lamia or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, PAOK in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 16 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: PAOK have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Feb 2025, when PAOK won PAOK 7-0 Lamia.
Lamia's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Lamia
1
Draws
9
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Lamia vs PAOK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and PAOK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lamia have won 0, PAOK have won 9, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lamia and PAOK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 February 2025: PAOK 7-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 54%, PAOK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lamia) and 57% (PAOK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAOK in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lamia vs PAOK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lamia and PAOK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Lamia's recent matches and 50% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lamia and PAOK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Lamia's matches and 57% of PAOK's.
Do Lamia and PAOK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Lamia's recent matches and 82% of PAOK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Lamia 0-2 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.15 xG and PAOK 2.45 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lamia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.98 / defence 1.13 against PAOK attack 1.60 / defence 0.73, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 15% | Draw 21% | PAOK 65%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 52%, PAOK 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAOK's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. PAOK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.