Lamia 0-4 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (56%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Lamia face AEK Athens FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamia host AEK Athens FC at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1 (Championship Round - 1). Kick-off is Sunday 10 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Lamia — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Lamia at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, AEK Athens FC stand at 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AEK Athens FC away from home: 5W 5D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour AEK Athens FC — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Lamia's last 10 home games and AEK Athens FC's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
AEK Athens FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Lamia.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Feb 2024, ended Lamia 1–3 AEK Athens FC — a AEK Athens FC win.
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Lamia in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 51% versus AEK Athens FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 51% | AEK Athens FC 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lamia surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while AEK Athens FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.26 xG and AEK Athens FC 2.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.889 / defence 1.095 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.452 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.359. AEK Athens FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.452, which lifts their away xG to 2.16. Data: built from Lamia's last 52 games and AEK Athens FC's last 52.
Result probabilities: Lamia 20% | Draw 24% | AEK Athens FC 56%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 5.00 | Draw 4.21 | AEK Athens FC 1.78. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.26 / 2.16) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AEK Athens FC at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lamia's last 10 home games and AEK Athens FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamia 70% (last 10 home games) | AEK Athens FC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 20% | Draw 24% | AEK Athens FC 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Lamia 1.26 / AEK Athens FC 2.16 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.889 / def 1.095 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.452 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
2.16
AEK Athens FC xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lamia vs AEK Athens FC FAQs
What time does Lamia vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Lamia vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Lamia 0 - 4 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Lamia vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Lamia vs AEK Athens FC is a Super League 1 fixture (Championship Round - 1) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 20% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Lamia and AEK Athens FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lamia vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lamia's attack rating (0.89) and AEK Athens FC's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AEK Athens FC's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 2.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lamia's last 52 games and AEK Athens FC's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
20%
5.00
24%
4.21
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Lamia xG
Total xG
3.42
2.16
AEK Athens FC xG
5.00
20%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
12%
8.68
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
2%
43.38
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lamia vs AEK Athens FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Lamia and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Lamia and 2.16 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamia come into this having played 59 games, going 14W 21D 24L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, AEK Athens FC sit at 2.31 PPG from 59 outings (41W 13D 5L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five.
AEK Athens FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.24 PPG clear of Lamia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lamia's home form reads 10W 7D 12L across their last 29 home games, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, AEK Athens FC have taken 2.14 points per game from their last 29 away games (18W 8D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 2.10 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Lamia (Home) vs AEK Athens FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lamia
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Lamia vs AEK Athens FC Form FAQs
What form are Lamia and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 14W 21D 24L in their last 59 games (1.07 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 41W 13D 5L in their last 59 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or AEK Athens FC away?
AEK Athens FC's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.28 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Lamia or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 14 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Mar 2024, when AEK Athens FC won Lamia 0-4 AEK Athens FC.
Lamia's record when hosting AEK Athens FC specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Lamia
1
Draws
9
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Lamia vs AEK Athens FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and AEK Athens FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lamia have won 0, AEK Athens FC have won 9, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lamia and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 December 2024: Lamia 0-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 52%, AEK Athens FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lamia) and 52% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC in 45%; Lamia have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lamia vs AEK Athens FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lamia and AEK Athens FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lamia's recent matches and 48% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lamia and AEK Athens FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Lamia's recent games and 52% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and AEK Athens FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Lamia's recent matches and 72% of AEK Athens FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Lamia 0-4 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Championship Round - 1, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.26 xG and AEK Athens FC 2.16 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Lamia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. AEK Athens FC outscored their 2.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.45 / defence 0.87, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 20% | Draw 24% | AEK Athens FC 56%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 51%, AEK Athens FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.