Lamia 2-4 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamia host Aris Thessalonikis at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1, Championship Round - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 15 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lamia — All Games: 0W 1D 9L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 3.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Lamia have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Lamia are significantly better at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Aris Thessalonikis — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Lamia have won 2, Aris Thessalonikis 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 1–3 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lamia in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 54% versus Aris Thessalonikis 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 55% | Aris Thessalonikis 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.19 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.915 / defence 1.082 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.919 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.362. Aris Thessalonikis's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Lamia games / 52 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 30% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 38%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Lamia 50% | Aris Thessalonikis 10% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 9 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 30% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Lamia 1.19 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.915 / def 1.082 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.919 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Aris Thessalonikis xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 15 May 2024 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Lamia 2 - 4 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Championship Round - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 30% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (7 meetings): Lamia 2W | Draws 2 | Aris Thessalonikis 3W.
What form are Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Lamia (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 3.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lamia's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Aris Thessalonikis's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
30%
3.29
31%
3.19
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.54
1.35
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
8%
12.76
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.7 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Lamia and 1.35 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 14W 22D 31L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 29W 12D 26L from 67 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lamia have posted 1.15 PPG from 33 outings (10W 8D 15L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 9W 7D 17L from 33 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aris Thessalonikis's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.45 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Current Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 14W 22D 31L in their last 67 games (0.96 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 29W 12D 26L in their last 67 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Lamia's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.15 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Lamia or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Aris Thessalonikis go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2022, when Aris Thessalonikis won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lamia
2
Draws
6
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 2, Aris Thessalonikis have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Lamia 0-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 52%, Aris Thessalonikis 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lamia) and 39% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 36%; Lamia have failed to score in 30% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lamia's recent matches and 30% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Lamia's recent games and 39% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Lamia 2-4 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Championship Round - 9, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.19 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.35 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Lamia beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 1.35 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.92 / defence 0.79, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 30% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 38%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 55%, Aris Thessalonikis 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.