AEK Athens FC 3-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AEK Athens FC face Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Championship Round - 10 as AEK Athens FC welcome Lamia to OPAP Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AEK Athens FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at OPAP Arena, AEK Athens FC have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at OPAP Arena. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — AEK Athens FC are significantly better at OPAP Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have recorded 0W 1D 9L from 10 outings — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 3.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lamia away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
AEK Athens FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of AEK Athens FC: 7 wins from 7 previous clashes against 0 for Lamia, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 4–0 with AEK Athens FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AEK Athens FC and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Lamia in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 43% versus Lamia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 60% | Lamia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 2.31 xG and Lamia 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.316 / defence 0.850 | Lamia attack 1.058 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.362. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.316 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 AEK Athens FC games / 52 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 60% | Draw 22% | Lamia 18%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Lamia 5.56. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AEK Athens FC at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 40% | Lamia 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 10 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 60% | Draw 22% | Lamia 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG AEK Athens FC 2.31 / Lamia 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.316 / def 0.850 | Lamia attack 1.058 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Lamia xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Lamia kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Lamia kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
AEK Athens FC 3 - 0 Lamia.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Lamia part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Lamia is a Championship Round - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 60% chance of winning, Lamia a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Lamia?
Record (7 meetings): AEK Athens FC 7W | Draws 0 | Lamia 0W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Lamia in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Lamia (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 3.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AEK Athens FC's attack rating (1.32) and Lamia's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 2.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus AEK Athens FC's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.50
18%
5.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
3.54
1.23
Lamia xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
5.69
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
10%
10.10
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
2%
57.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 1.23 for Lamia, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AEK Athens FC's recent record stands at 46W 14D 8L from 68 games, a 2.24 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Lamia, meanwhile, have gone 14W 22D 32L across 68 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AEK Athens FC by 1.30 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamia heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AEK Athens FC have managed 26W 6D 1L from 33 games — 2.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lamia's away record stands at 4W 13D 16L across 33 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AEK Athens FC are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.97 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Current Season
Lamia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Lamia in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 46W 14D 8L in their last 68 games (2.24 PPG), while Lamia have gone 14W 22D 32L in their last 68 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Lamia away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.55 PPG; Lamia away: 0.76 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Lamia in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AEK Athens FC and Lamia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2024, when AEK Athens FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AEK Athens FC's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
0
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 9, Lamia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2024, when Lamia 0-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Lamia?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 33%, Lamia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for AEK Athens FC and 58% for Lamia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Lamia in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 54% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 58% of Lamia's.
Do AEK Athens FC and Lamia tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Lamia in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Lamia 3-0 at OPAP Arena, Championship Round - 10, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 2.31 xG and Lamia 1.23 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lamia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.32 / defence 0.85 against Lamia attack 1.06 / defence 1.08, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 60% | Draw 22% | Lamia 18%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 60%, Lamia 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lamia's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.