Atromitos 1-2 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Atromitos at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atromitos host Aris Thessalonikis at Peristeri Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atromitos stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atromitos have posted 2W 4D 4L at Peristeri Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Peristeri Stadium this season.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Atromitos at 1.50 PPG versus Aris Thessalonikis's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Aris Thessalonikis have the better historical record — 4 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Atromitos.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Aris Thessalonikis have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 53% versus Aris Thessalonikis 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atromitos 47% | Aris Thessalonikis 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.23 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.980 / defence 1.021 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.010 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 0.945. Data: 28 Atromitos games / 28 Aris Thessalonikis games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Atromitos 42% | Draw 29% | Aris Thessalonikis 29%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Atromitos 50% | Aris Thessalonikis 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Peristeri Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 42% | Draw 29% | Aris Thessalonikis 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Atromitos 1.23 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.980 / def 1.021 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.010 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.220 / away 0.945 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Aris Thessalonikis xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Peristeri Stadium.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Atromitos 1 - 2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Peristeri Stadium.
What competition is Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 42% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (8 meetings): Atromitos 1W | Draws 3 | Aris Thessalonikis 4W.
What form are Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Atromitos (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Atromitos's attack rating (0.98) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
42%
2.38
29%
3.48
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.21
0.97
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
9%
11.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.97 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atromitos's recent record stands at 13W 7D 14L from 34 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aris Thessalonikis, meanwhile, have gone 17W 8D 9L across 34 games — 1.74 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atromitos on 1.35 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 3W 5D 8L from 16 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.35 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record stands at 5W 5D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aris Thessalonikis's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.29 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Early Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 13W 7D 14L in their last 34 games (1.35 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 17W 8D 9L in their last 34 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 0.88 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Atromitos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Atromitos's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Atromitos
4
Draws
5
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 1, Aris Thessalonikis have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 56%, Aris Thessalonikis 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Atromitos) and 38% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 31%; Atromitos have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Atromitos's games and 62% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Atromitos's recent games and 38% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aris Thessalonikis defy the odds to beat Atromitos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Atromitos 1-2 at Peristeri Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.23 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.97 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.98 / defence 1.02 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.01 / defence 1.03, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 42% | Draw 29% | Aris Thessalonikis 29%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Aris Thessalonikis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 47%, Aris Thessalonikis 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.35 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.