AEK Athens FC 1-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AEK Athens FC at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
OPAP Arena plays host to AEK Athens FC versus Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Monday 4 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
AEK Athens FC (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's home record at OPAP Arena: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at OPAP Arena.
Aris Thessalonikis have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for AEK Athens FC, 2.00 for Aris Thessalonikis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: AEK Athens FC 2W, Aris Thessalonikis 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2023, ended 2–1 with AEK Athens FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 33% versus Aris Thessalonikis 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 50% | Aris Thessalonikis 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.65 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.147 / defence 0.719 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.995 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.084. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.719 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 AEK Athens FC games / 38 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 56% | Draw 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 15%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.79 | Draw 3.33 | Aris Thessalonikis 6.67. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: AEK Athens FC 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Monday 4 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 56% | Draw 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.65 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.147 / def 0.719 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.995 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Aris Thessalonikis xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 4 December 2023 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
AEK Athens FC 1 - 0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 56% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 15% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (2 meetings): AEK Athens FC 2W | Draws 0 | Aris Thessalonikis 0W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AEK Athens FC's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Aris Thessalonikis's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.99x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
56%
1.80
30%
3.38
15%
6.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.42
0.78
Aris Thessalonikis xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
6.73
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
3%
34.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 11.3 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.78 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, AEK Athens FC have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 34W 8D 6L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 21W 8D 19L from 48 games, 1.48 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AEK Athens FC are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aris Thessalonikis.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AEK Athens FC have posted 2.52 PPG from 23 outings (18W 4D 1L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 5W 5D 13L from 23 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aris Thessalonikis's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.54 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.52 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 34W 8D 6L in their last 48 games (2.29 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 21W 8D 19L in their last 48 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.52 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 0.87 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AEK Athens FC
3
Draws
0
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 7, Aris Thessalonikis have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 30% (AEK Athens FC) and 39% (Aris Thessalonikis) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (AEK Athens FC) and 48% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 70% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 30%; Aris Thessalonikis in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 39% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 48% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AEK Athens FC edge out Aris Thessalonikis 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Aris Thessalonikis 1-0 at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.65 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.78 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.72 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.99 / defence 0.90, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 56% | Draw 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 15%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 50%, Aris Thessalonikis 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.48. Form held, and they took the win. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.