Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Werder Bremen travel to Frankfurt Arena to take on Eintracht Frankfurt. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 April 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt at Frankfurt Arena this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at Frankfurt Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Werder Bremen stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Eintracht Frankfurt) versus 1.30 (Werder Bremen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1 for Werder Bremen and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Werder Bremen in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 66% and Werder Bremen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 59% | Werder Bremen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.45 xG and Werder Bremen 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.985 / defence 0.834 | Werder Bremen attack 0.823 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.432. Data: 61 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 61 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 45% | Draw 31% | Werder Bremen 23%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Werder Bremen 4.35. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eintracht Frankfurt at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 70% | Werder Bremen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Frankfurt Arena • Kick-off: Friday 5 Apr 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 45% | Draw 31% | Werder Bremen 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.45 / Werder Bremen 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.985 / def 0.834 | Werder Bremen attack 0.823 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Werder Bremen xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 5 April 2024 at Frankfurt Arena.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 1 Werder Bremen.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Frankfurt Arena.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 45% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen?
Record (5 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 2W | Draws 2 | Werder Bremen 1W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (0.98) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
45%
2.20
31%
3.18
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.43
0.98
Werder Bremen xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
5%
18.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0.98 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record stands at 23W 22D 16L from 61 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 31L across 61 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Eintracht Frankfurt by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Werder Bremen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Eintracht Frankfurt have managed 15W 11D 4L from 30 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 8W 7D 15L across 30 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.41 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Werder Bremen in 64%.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 23W 22D 16L in their last 61 games (1.49 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 18W 12D 31L in their last 61 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Werder Bremen away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.87 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2025, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting Werder Bremen specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
Draws
2
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, Werder Bremen have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Werder Bremen 3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 60%, Werder Bremen 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 57% (Werder Bremen).
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 63% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 57% of Werder Bremen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Frankfurt Arena, Regular Season - 28, as Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.45 xG and Werder Bremen 0.98 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.98 / defence 0.83 against Werder Bremen attack 0.82 / defence 0.92, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 45% | Draw 31% | Werder Bremen 23%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 59%, Werder Bremen 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.