Borussia Dortmund 0-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Dortmund host VfB Stuttgart at BVB Stadion Dortmund in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at BVB Stadion Dortmund this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Dortmund 2.30 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Borussia Dortmund have won 3, VfB Stuttgart 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Borussia Dortmund trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 59% and VfB Stuttgart 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 66% | VfB Stuttgart 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.82 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.209 / defence 1.034 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.118 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.429. Data: 61 Borussia Dortmund games / 61 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 41% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 34%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | VfB Stuttgart 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 70% | VfB Stuttgart 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: BVB Stadion Dortmund • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 41% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 70% | xG Borussia Dortmund 1.82 / VfB Stuttgart 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.209 / def 1.034 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.118 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.65
VfB Stuttgart xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at BVB Stadion Dortmund.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Borussia Dortmund 0 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at BVB Stadion Dortmund.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 41% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (5 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 3W | Draws 1 | VfB Stuttgart 1W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Borussia Dortmund's attack rating (1.21) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
41%
2.46
26%
3.87
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.48
1.65
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.29
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
8%
12.86
5%
18.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.65 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Dortmund's recent record stands at 37W 13D 11L from 61 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 27W 13D 21L across 61 games — 1.54 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VfB Stuttgart heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Dortmund have managed 22W 4D 4L from 30 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 11W 5D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.26 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.82 scored and 1.46 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 66%.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 37W 13D 11L in their last 61 games (2.03 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 27W 13D 21L in their last 61 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.33 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or VfB Stuttgart been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, VfB Stuttgart in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
4
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 60%, VfB Stuttgart 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Borussia Dortmund and 77% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 63% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 67% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 77% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfB Stuttgart defy the odds to beat Borussia Dortmund 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Borussia Dortmund 0-1 at BVB Stadion Dortmund, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.82 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.65 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Borussia Dortmund fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.21 / defence 1.03 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.12 / defence 0.93, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 41% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 34%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual VfB Stuttgart win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 66%, VfB Stuttgart 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.54. Form was overturned, with VfB Stuttgart winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.73 scoring average — below par going forward. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.