Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 15 as Eintracht Frankfurt welcome FSV Mainz 05 to Deutsche Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 December 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record at Deutsche Bank Park: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FSV Mainz 05 — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Eintracht Frankfurt at 1.80 PPG versus FSV Mainz 05's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Eintracht Frankfurt register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Eintracht Frankfurt, 0 for FSV Mainz 05 and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FSV Mainz 05 in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 69% and FSV Mainz 05 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 62% | FSV Mainz 05 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 2.29 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.352 / defence 0.999 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.247 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.487. Eintracht Frankfurt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.352 — their λ of 2.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FSV Mainz 05 have an above-average attack strength of 1.247 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 48 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 47% | Draw 23% | FSV Mainz 05 30%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | FSV Mainz 05 3.33. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.14. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.14 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 77% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 80% | FSV Mainz 05 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 47% | Draw 23% | FSV Mainz 05 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 77% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 2.29 / FSV Mainz 05 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.352 / def 0.999 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.247 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.85
FSV Mainz 05 xG
77%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 3 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 47% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (5 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 2W | Draws 3 | FSV Mainz 05 0W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 1.35x the league average against FSV Mainz 05's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 2.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FSV Mainz 05's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
47%
2.15
23%
4.30
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
1 – 1
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
4.14
1.85
FSV Mainz 05 xG
2.15
47%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.29
23%
BTTS No
4.44
Clean Sheet
16%
6.38
10%
9.87
Win to Nil
7%
13.69
3%
32.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.85 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 4.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record stands at 19W 17D 12L from 48 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 13W 18D 17L across 48 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.54 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Eintracht Frankfurt have managed 11W 10D 2L from 23 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 4W 11D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.33 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 19W 17D 12L in their last 48 games (1.54 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 13W 18D 17L in their last 48 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.87 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting FSV Mainz 05 specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
Draws
2
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Frankfurt at 70%, FSV Mainz 05 at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 61% (FSV Mainz 05). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; FSV Mainz 05 in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 65% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 61% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FSV Mainz 05 cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 2.29 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.85 xG, a combined 4.14. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FSV Mainz 05 outscored their 1.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.35 / defence 1.00 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.25 / defence 1.01, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 47% | Draw 23% | FSV Mainz 05 30%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual FSV Mainz 05 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 62%, FSV Mainz 05 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.54 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.