Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees 1. FC Köln travel to Deutsche Bank Park to take on Eintracht Frankfurt. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 April 2026, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Deutsche Bank Park, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Deutsche Bank Park. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at Deutsche Bank Park than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Köln — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Eintracht Frankfurt) versus 0.90 (1. FC Köln). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Eintracht Frankfurt, 3 for 1. FC Köln and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 4–3 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
1. FC Köln in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 66% and 1. FC Köln 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 64% | 1. FC Köln 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.88 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.964 / defence 0.908 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.704 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.445. Data: 61 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 27 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Köln 18%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | 1. FC Köln 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Eintracht Frankfurt 40% | 1. FC Köln 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Köln 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.88 / 1. FC Köln 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.964 / def 0.908 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.704 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
0.93
1. FC Köln xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln?
Eintracht Frankfurt 2 - 2 1. FC Köln.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 60% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln?
Record (9 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 2W | Draws 4 | 1. FC Köln 3W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (0.96) and 1. FC Köln's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Köln's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
60%
1.68
23%
4.38
18%
5.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.81
0.93
1. FC Köln xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
5.67
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
15%
6.58
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
3%
37.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.5 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0.93 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 61 games, going 27W 17D 17L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 1.43 PPG from 61 outings (24W 15D 22L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.61 PPG, 1. FC Köln on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 17W 6D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Köln have taken 1.33 points per game from 30 outings (11W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.49 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; 1. FC Köln in 62%.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 27W 17D 17L in their last 61 games (1.61 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 24W 15D 22L in their last 61 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or 1. FC Köln away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.90 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2023, when 1. FC Köln won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting 1. FC Köln specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
5
Draws
3
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, 1. FC Köln have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 57%, 1. FC Köln 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 47% (1. FC Köln). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 53% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 47% of 1. FC Köln's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 28, as Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.88 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.93 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Köln outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.70 / defence 1.15, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Köln 18%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 64%, 1. FC Köln 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.61 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.