1. FC Köln 1-1 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Köln at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Köln vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC St. Pauli make the trip to RheinEnergieStadion to face 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 December 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Köln (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at RheinEnergieStadion this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — 1. FC Köln are significantly better at RheinEnergieStadion than their overall form suggests.
FC St. Pauli have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward 1. FC Köln. A 0.60 PPG lead over FC St. Pauli (0.90 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
FC St. Pauli — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 59% versus FC St. Pauli 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 54% | FC St. Pauli 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.80 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 1.146 / defence 1.271 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.765 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.445. Data: 12 1. FC Köln games / 46 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 46% | Draw 24% | FC St. Pauli 30%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | FC St. Pauli 3.33. 1. FC Köln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Köln are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 80% | FC St. Pauli 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 46% | Draw 24% | FC St. Pauli 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.80 / FC St. Pauli 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 1.146 / def 1.271 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.765 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.642 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.41
FC St. Pauli xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
1. FC Köln vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs FC St. Pauli?
1. FC Köln 1 - 1 FC St. Pauli.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs FC St. Pauli part of?
1. FC Köln vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 46% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both 1. FC Köln and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and FC St. Pauli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Köln and FC St. Pauli in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
1. FC Köln's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against FC St. Pauli's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.77x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 12/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
46%
2.15
24%
4.18
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.21
1.41
FC St. Pauli xG
2.15
46%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
5%
20.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.41 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Köln come into this having played 46 games, going 22W 10D 14L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC St. Pauli sit at 0.85 PPG from 46 outings (10W 9D 27L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Köln carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
1. FC Köln's home form reads 11W 5D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, FC St. Pauli have taken 0.95 points per game from 22 outings (6W 3D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Köln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 0.83 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 22W 10D 14L in their last 46 games (1.65 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 10W 9D 27L in their last 46 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or FC St. Pauli away?
1. FC Köln's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.73 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
1. FC Köln
2
Draws
0
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and FC St. Pauli?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 0, FC St. Pauli have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when FC St. Pauli 1-1 1. FC Köln.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 68%, FC St. Pauli 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (1. FC Köln) and 41% (FC St. Pauli).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play FC St. Pauli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of 1. FC Köln's recent matches and 41% of FC St. Pauli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Köln vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of 1. FC Köln's recent games and 41% of FC St. Pauli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Köln and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Köln and FC St. Pauli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 13, as 1. FC Köln and FC St. Pauli drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.80 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.41 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Köln fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.15 / defence 1.27 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.77 / defence 0.96, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 46% | Draw 24% | FC St. Pauli 30%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 54%, FC St. Pauli 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Köln arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.