SV Darmstadt 98 1-1 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 44%, yet in-form 1. FC Magdeburg provide a compelling counter-argument — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor plays host to SV Darmstadt 98 versus 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 31 October 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Darmstadt 98 have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Magdeburg away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, 1. FC Magdeburg are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: SV Darmstadt 98 2W, 1. FC Magdeburg 2W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
1. FC Magdeburg half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 58% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 58% | 1. FC Magdeburg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.47 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.912 / defence 0.955 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.034 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.162. Data: 43 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 43 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 44% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Magdeburg 29%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | 1. FC Magdeburg 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form 1. FC Magdeburg (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | 1. FC Magdeburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 44% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Magdeburg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.47 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.912 / def 0.955 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.034 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.15
1. FC Magdeburg xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
SV Darmstadt 98 1 - 1 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 44% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (6 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 2W | Draws 2 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 0.91x the league average against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (1.03x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.74
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.62
1.15
1. FC Magdeburg xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
7%
14.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.15 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 43 games, going 15W 15D 13L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.28 PPG from 43 outings (17W 4D 22L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.28 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 11W 7D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — SV Darmstadt 98 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 1.24 points per game from 21 outings (8W 2D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.67 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 43 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 15W 15D 13L in their last 43 games (1.40 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 17W 4D 22L in their last 43 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.90 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Magdeburg won 4-1 on 2 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
SV Darmstadt 98
3
Draws
2
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 7 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 1-1 1. FC Magdeburg.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 48%, 1. FC Magdeburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 57% (1. FC Magdeburg).
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; SV Darmstadt 98 have failed to score in 29% of games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 52% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 57% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg finished level at 1-1 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.47 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.15 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.91 / defence 0.95 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.03 / defence 0.96, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 44% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Magdeburg 29%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 58%, 1. FC Magdeburg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.40 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.