SV Darmstadt 98 1-2 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor plays host to SV Darmstadt 98 versus 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Darmstadt 98 have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. SV Darmstadt 98 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 games at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor this term (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. 1. FC Magdeburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Magdeburg away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, 1. FC Magdeburg are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: SV Darmstadt 98 2W, 1. FC Magdeburg 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2023, ended 1–0 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
1. FC Magdeburg half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 50% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 60% | 1. FC Magdeburg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 0.87 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.659 / defence 1.060 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.279 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.478. SV Darmstadt 98's attack strength of 0.659 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. 1. FC Magdeburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 40 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 14% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 62%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 7.14 | Draw 4.00 | 1. FC Magdeburg 1.61. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Magdeburg (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Magdeburg at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SV Darmstadt 98 40% | 1. FC Magdeburg 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 14% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 52% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 0.87 / 1. FC Magdeburg 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.659 / def 1.060 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.279 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.478 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
2.00
1. FC Magdeburg xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
SV Darmstadt 98 1 - 2 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 14% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 62% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (2 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 2W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Magdeburg 0W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 0.66x the league average against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (1.28x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
14%
7.38
25%
4.06
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.88
2.00
1. FC Magdeburg xG
7.38
14%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
13%
7.42
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
2%
54.75
26%
3.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 2.00 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 40 games, going 4W 10D 26L for 0.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.25 PPG from 40 outings (12W 14D 14L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Magdeburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 1W 5D 14L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.40 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 1.15 points per game from 20 outings (6W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Magdeburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.48 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 40 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
1. FC Magdeburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 4W 10D 26L in their last 40 games (0.55 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 12W 14D 14L in their last 40 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
1. FC Magdeburg's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 0.40 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Magdeburg won 4-1 on 2 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SV Darmstadt 98
2
Draws
2
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when 1. FC Magdeburg 1-1 SV Darmstadt 98.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 50%, 1. FC Magdeburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 50% (1. FC Magdeburg).
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 have failed to score in 50% of games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 50% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 50% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Magdeburg edge out SV Darmstadt 98 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat SV Darmstadt 98 1-2 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 0.87 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 2.00 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.66 / defence 1.06 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.28 / defence 0.86, drawn from 6/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 14% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 62%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 60%, 1. FC Magdeburg 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Magdeburg arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.55. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.