SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-5 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees SV Darmstadt 98 travel to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer to take on SpVgg Greuther Fürth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.30 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2023, ended 4–0 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 52% versus SV Darmstadt 98 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54% | SV Darmstadt 98 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.85 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.802 / defence 1.077 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.121 / defence 1.404. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.555. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.404 — this is suppressing SpVgg Greuther Fürth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 10 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 38%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 3.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% | SV Darmstadt 98 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 73% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.85 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.802 / def 1.077 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.121 / def 1.404 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.555 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.88
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 5 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 38% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (2 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W | Draws 1 | SV Darmstadt 98 0W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating (0.80) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.8%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
38%
2.66
24%
4.18
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.73
1.88
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
2.66
38%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.65
Clean Sheet
15%
6.53
16%
6.38
Win to Nil
6%
17.37
6%
16.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.88 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 17W 12D 15L from 44 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 5W 12D 27L across 44 games — 0.61 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SpVgg Greuther Fürth by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SV Darmstadt 98 heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 10W 6D 5L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 3W 6D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.09 scored and 2.43 conceded.
Last 44 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 17W 12D 15L in their last 44 games (1.43 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 5W 12D 27L in their last 44 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.71 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
3
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 6 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%, SV Darmstadt 98 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 67% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SV Darmstadt 98 in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 52% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 67% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Darmstadt 98 run riot with a 1-5 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-5 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.85 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.88 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth fell 0.9 short of their projected output. SV Darmstadt 98 outscored their 1.88 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.80 / defence 1.08 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.12 / defence 1.40, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 38%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual SV Darmstadt 98 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54%, SV Darmstadt 98 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SpVgg Greuther Fürth arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.61. Form was overturned, with SV Darmstadt 98 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.