Holstein Kiel 0-2 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Holstein Kiel at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg meet at Holstein-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 October 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Holstein Kiel have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Holstein-Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Holstein-Stadion this season.
1. FC Nürnberg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Holstein Kiel, 1.50 for 1. FC Nürnberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Holstein Kiel register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Holstein Kiel 3W, 1. FC Nürnberg 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Holstein Kiel winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Holstein Kiel half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
1. FC Nürnberg half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 75% and 1. FC Nürnberg 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 70% | 1. FC Nürnberg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 2.25 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.968 / defence 1.264 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.961 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.747 / away 1.341. 1. FC Nürnberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Holstein Kiel's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Holstein Kiel games / 44 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 51% | Draw 21% | 1. FC Nürnberg 27%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 1.96 | Draw 4.76 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3.70. Holstein Kiel hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.88. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.88 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Holstein Kiel as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 90% | 1. FC Nürnberg 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 51% | Draw 21% | 1. FC Nürnberg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG Holstein Kiel 2.25 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.968 / def 1.264 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.961 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.747 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.63
1. FC Nürnberg xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Holstein Kiel 0 - 2 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 51% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (4 meetings): Holstein Kiel 3W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Nürnberg 1W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Holstein Kiel's attack rating (0.97) and 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Nürnberg's attack (0.96x) against Holstein Kiel's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
51%
1.95
21%
4.68
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
3.88
1.63
1. FC Nürnberg xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.64
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
11%
9.51
Win to Nil
10%
9.93
3%
34.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.63 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 3.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Holstein Kiel's recent record stands at 18W 11D 15L from 44 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Nürnberg, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 18L across 44 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Holstein Kiel against 1.23 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Holstein Kiel have managed 8W 5D 9L from 22 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record stands at 4W 6D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Nürnberg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Holstein Kiel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.09 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 18W 11D 15L in their last 44 games (1.48 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 14W 12D 18L in their last 44 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.32 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Holstein Kiel won 0-4 on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Holstein Kiel have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Nürnberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
3
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 8 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 4, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Holstein Kiel 2-3 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for Holstein Kiel, 50% for 1. FC Nürnberg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Holstein Kiel and 64% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Holstein Kiel's games and 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 64% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Nürnberg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Holstein Kiel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat Holstein Kiel 0-2 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 2.25 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.63 xG, a combined 3.88. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Holstein Kiel fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.97 / defence 1.26 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.96 / defence 1.33, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 51% | Draw 21% | 1. FC Nürnberg 27%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual 1. FC Nürnberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 70%, 1. FC Nürnberg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.48 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.