1. FC Nürnberg 3-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg and Hertha BSC meet at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 October 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Nürnberg have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg at Max-Morlock-Stadion this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Hertha BSC's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.50 for Hertha BSC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
1. FC Nürnberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Hertha BSC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 44% versus Hertha BSC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 49% | Hertha BSC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.98 xG and Hertha BSC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.905 / defence 0.866 | Hertha BSC attack 1.107 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.317. Hertha BSC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 1. FC Nürnberg games / 9 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 53% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 23%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Hertha BSC 4.35. 1. FC Nürnberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 50% | Hertha BSC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 53% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.98 / Hertha BSC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.905 / def 0.866 | Hertha BSC attack 1.107 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Hertha BSC xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC?
1. FC Nürnberg 3 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 53% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hertha BSC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hertha BSC in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 0.91x the league average against Hertha BSC's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (1.11x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.24
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
3.24
1.26
Hertha BSC xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
3%
30.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.26 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, 1. FC Nürnberg have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 13W 12D 18L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC's form line: 11W 8D 24L from 43 games, 0.95 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for 1. FC Nürnberg against 0.95 for Hertha BSC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, 1. FC Nürnberg have posted 1.57 PPG from 21 outings (9W 6D 6L).
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 4W 2D 15L from 21 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.40 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC in 63%.
Last 43 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 13W 12D 18L in their last 43 games (1.19 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 11W 8D 24L in their last 43 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Hertha BSC away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.57 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.67 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Hertha BSC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hertha BSC won 0-3 on 28 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
1. FC Nürnberg
2
Draws
3
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 1, Hertha BSC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Hertha BSC 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hertha BSC?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Nürnberg see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 38%, Hertha BSC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 67% (Hertha BSC).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 29% of games; Hertha BSC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play Hertha BSC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 67% of Hertha BSC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 67% of Hertha BSC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Nürnberg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat Hertha BSC 3-1 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.98 xG and Hertha BSC 1.26 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.91 / defence 0.87 against Hertha BSC attack 1.11 / defence 1.30, drawn from 43/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 53% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 23%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 49%, Hertha BSC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.19 PPG, Hertha BSC 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.