Hertha BSC 2-2 SSV Ulm 1846 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hertha BSC at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hertha BSC vs SSV Ulm 1846 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees SSV Ulm 1846 travel to Olympiastadion Berlin to take on Hertha BSC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympiastadion Berlin, Hertha BSC have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Ulm 1846 stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
Hertha BSC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
SSV Ulm 1846 in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 67% versus SSV Ulm 1846 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 58% | SSV Ulm 1846 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.12 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.883 / defence 1.139 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.645 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.451. Data: 46 Hertha BSC games / 12 SSV Ulm 1846 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 35% | Draw 33% | SSV Ulm 1846 32%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | SSV Ulm 1846 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hertha BSC 60% | SSV Ulm 1846 33%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs SSV Ulm 1846 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 35% | Draw 33% | SSV Ulm 1846 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Hertha BSC 1.12 / SSV Ulm 1846 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.883 / def 1.139 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.645 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs SSV Ulm 1846 kick off?
Hertha BSC vs SSV Ulm 1846 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Hertha BSC 2 - 2 SSV Ulm 1846.
Where is Hertha BSC vs SSV Ulm 1846 being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs SSV Ulm 1846 part of?
Hertha BSC vs SSV Ulm 1846 is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 35% chance of winning, SSV Ulm 1846 a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hertha BSC and SSV Ulm 1846 will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs SSV Ulm 1846 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SSV Ulm 1846?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hertha BSC and SSV Ulm 1846 in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. SSV Ulm 1846 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Hertha BSC vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hertha BSC's attack rating (0.88) and SSV Ulm 1846's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Ulm 1846's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
35%
2.86
33%
3.03
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.19
1.07
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
12%
8.31
10%
9.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and SSV Ulm 1846 expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.07 for SSV Ulm 1846, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Hertha BSC have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 5W 2D 5L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SSV Ulm 1846's form line: 2W 4D 6L from 12 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D. The sample for SSV Ulm 1846 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hertha BSC are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SSV Ulm 1846.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hertha BSC have posted 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (2W 0D 4L). That actually lags their 1.42 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; SSV Ulm 1846 are on 0.83 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
SSV Ulm 1846
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and SSV Ulm 1846 in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 games (1.42 PPG), while SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or SSV Ulm 1846 away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.00 PPG; SSV Ulm 1846 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hertha BSC and SSV Ulm 1846 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
1
Draws
0
SSV Ulm 1846
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SSV Ulm 1846?
From 2 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and SSV Ulm 1846 last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when SSV Ulm 1846 2-3 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and SSV Ulm 1846?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
SSV Ulm 1846 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 50%, SSV Ulm 1846 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Hertha BSC and 17% for SSV Ulm 1846.
On the defensive side: SSV Ulm 1846 in 33%; Hertha BSC have failed to score in 33% of games; SSV Ulm 1846 in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / SSV Ulm 1846 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play SSV Ulm 1846?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 33% of SSV Ulm 1846's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hertha BSC vs SSV Ulm 1846 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 17% of SSV Ulm 1846's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and SSV Ulm 1846 tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, SSV Ulm 1846 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hertha BSC and SSV Ulm 1846 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC and SSV Ulm 1846 finished level at 2-2 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.12 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.07 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hertha BSC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SSV Ulm 1846 outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.65 / defence 0.82, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 35% | Draw 33% | SSV Ulm 1846 32%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 58%, SSV Ulm 1846 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hertha BSC arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.