Eintracht Braunschweig 1-5 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Eintracht Braunschweig at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 26 as Eintracht Braunschweig welcome Hertha BSC to Eintracht-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 March 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Braunschweig at Eintracht-Stadion this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Eintracht-Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Eintracht Braunschweig are significantly better at Eintracht-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Hertha BSC — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Eintracht Braunschweig carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Eintracht Braunschweig, 2 for Hertha BSC and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2024, ended 1–3 with Hertha BSC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 46% versus Hertha BSC 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 51% | Hertha BSC 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.30 xG and Hertha BSC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.760 / defence 0.917 | Hertha BSC attack 0.889 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.279. Eintracht Braunschweig's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 59 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 41% | Draw 30% | Hertha BSC 29%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Hertha BSC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Hertha BSC lead the H2H ledger, but Eintracht Braunschweig carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Eintracht Braunschweig as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Braunschweig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eintracht Braunschweig 40% | Hertha BSC 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 41% | Draw 30% | Hertha BSC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.30 / Hertha BSC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.760 / def 0.917 | Hertha BSC attack 0.889 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Braunschweig (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Hertha BSC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC?
Eintracht Braunschweig 1 - 5 Hertha BSC.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 41% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Braunschweig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC?
Record (3 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 0W | Draws 1 | Hertha BSC 2W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Hertha BSC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating (0.76) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Braunschweig Win
41%
2.41
30%
3.34
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.35
1.04
Hertha BSC xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
8%
12.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.04 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Braunschweig come into this having played 59 games, going 16W 13D 30L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 1.25 PPG from 59 outings (20W 14D 25L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.03 PPG, Hertha BSC on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eintracht Braunschweig's home form reads 11W 8D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 1.24 points per game from 29 outings (10W 6D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.73 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC in 69%.
Last 59 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 16W 13D 30L in their last 59 games (1.03 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 20W 14D 25L in their last 59 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or Hertha BSC away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.41 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2025, when Hertha BSC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Eintracht Braunschweig
2
Draws
5
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC?
From 7 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 0, Hertha BSC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig 3-5 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 45%, Hertha BSC 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 76% (Hertha BSC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Eintracht Braunschweig have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Eintracht Braunschweig's games and 76% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Eintracht Braunschweig's matches and 76% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hertha BSC run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Eintracht Braunschweig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-5 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.30 xG and Hertha BSC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Hertha BSC outscored their 1.04 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.76 / defence 0.92 against Hertha BSC attack 0.89 / defence 1.18, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 41% | Draw 30% | Hertha BSC 29%, with Eintracht Braunschweig to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Hertha BSC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 51%, Hertha BSC 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 1.03 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.