1. FC Nürnberg 0-5 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 15 as 1. FC Nürnberg welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to Max-Morlock-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 December 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Max-Morlock-Stadion, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.40 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: 1. FC Nürnberg have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Fortuna Düsseldorf have managed just 0 wins.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 2–0 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
The historical record gives 1. FC Nürnberg a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Nürnberg in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 48% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 52% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.10 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.926 / defence 0.931 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.197 / defence 0.713. League average goals — home 1.670 / away 1.408. Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence strength of 0.713 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 1. FC Nürnberg games / 48 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 25% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 47%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.13. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Nürnberg 70% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 25% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.10 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.926 / def 0.931 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.197 / def 0.713 | league avg home 1.670 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
1. FC Nürnberg 0 - 5 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 25% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (4 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 4W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Nürnberg's attack rating (0.93) and Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
25%
3.94
28%
3.58
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.67
1.57
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
3.94
25%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
5%
18.94
16%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.8 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.57 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 16W 12D 20L from 48 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Düsseldorf, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 14L across 48 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fortuna Düsseldorf by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Nürnberg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1. FC Nürnberg have managed 10W 6D 7L from 23 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record stands at 9W 4D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.85 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 48 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 16W 12D 20L in their last 48 games (1.25 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 24W 10D 14L in their last 48 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.57 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Dec 2023, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
1. FC Nürnberg
2
Draws
3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 5, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when 1. FC Nürnberg 0-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 44%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 52% (Fortuna Düsseldorf).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 26% of games; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 44% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 52% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fortuna Düsseldorf run riot with a 0-5 hammering of 1. FC Nürnberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat 1. FC Nürnberg 0-5 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.10 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.57 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Fortuna Düsseldorf outscored their 1.57 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.20 / defence 0.71, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 25% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 47%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 52%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.