1. FC Magdeburg 0-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 make the trip to MDCC-Arena to face 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Thursday 10 November 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Magdeburg at MDCC-Arena this season: 2W 1D 4L from 7 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SV Darmstadt 98's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SV Darmstadt 98 are 0.60 PPG clear of 1. FC Magdeburg in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Magdeburg — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
SV Darmstadt 98 — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 60% and SV Darmstadt 98 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 67% | SV Darmstadt 98 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 0.91 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.687 / defence 1.208 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.145 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.268. 1. FC Magdeburg's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 1. FC Magdeburg games / 49 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 18% | Draw 25% | SV Darmstadt 98 57%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 5.56 | Draw 4.00 | SV Darmstadt 98 1.75. The model has a clear lean to SV Darmstadt 98 (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Darmstadt 98 are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 57% | SV Darmstadt 98 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: MDCC-Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Nov 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 18% | Draw 25% | SV Darmstadt 98 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 0.91 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.687 / def 1.208 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.145 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.75
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 10 November 2022 at MDCC-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
1. FC Magdeburg 0 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at MDCC-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 18% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 57% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from 1. FC Magdeburg's attack rating (0.69) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (1.15x) against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 15/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-2 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
18%
5.46
25%
3.97
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.66
1.75
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
5.46
18%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
3%
31.60
23%
4.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 12.3 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.75 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 5W 2D 8L from 15 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 1L across 15 games — 2.13 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Darmstadt 98 by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Magdeburg heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Magdeburg have managed 2W 1D 4L from 7 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 4W 2D 1L across 7 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.67 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; SV Darmstadt 98 in 60%.
Last 15 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 5W 2D 8L in their last 15 games (1.13 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 9W 5D 1L in their last 15 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.00 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 2.00 PPG.
Have 1. FC Magdeburg or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Magdeburg have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Magdeburg won 4-1 on 2 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
1. FC Magdeburg
2
Draws
2
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when 1. FC Magdeburg 1-1 SV Darmstadt 98.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 57%, SV Darmstadt 98 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (1. FC Magdeburg) and 57% (SV Darmstadt 98). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 71% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 57% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SV Darmstadt 98 edge out 1. FC Magdeburg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat 1. FC Magdeburg 0-1 at MDCC-Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 0.91 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.75 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Magdeburg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.69 / defence 1.21 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.15 / defence 0.94, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 18% | Draw 25% | SV Darmstadt 98 57%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 67%, SV Darmstadt 98 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.