1. FC Magdeburg 1-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 1 as 1. FC Magdeburg welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to MDCC-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 July 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Fortuna Düsseldorf haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.21 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.911 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.353. Data: 0 1. FC Magdeburg games / 34 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 29% | Draw 32% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 39%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: MDCC-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jul 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 29% | Draw 32% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.21 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.911 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 16 July 2022 at MDCC-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
1. FC Magdeburg 1 - 2 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at MDCC-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 29% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates 1. FC Magdeburg's attack at 0.85x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
29%
3.41
32%
3.14
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.63
1.42
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
7%
14.06
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.42 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Pre-Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2024, when 1. FC Magdeburg won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Magdeburg's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
1. FC Magdeburg
0
Draws
5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when 1. FC Magdeburg 2-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out 1. FC Magdeburg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat 1. FC Magdeburg 1-2 at MDCC-Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.21 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.42 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.91 / defence 0.91, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 29% | Draw 32% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 39%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.