Rodez 1-0 Boulogne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rodez at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Paul-Lignon plays host to Rodez versus Boulogne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 29 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 7D 2L. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Stade Paul-Lignon this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Boulogne (all games): 1W 0D 3L across 4 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.75 points per game. Last five: L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Boulogne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Rodez, 0.75 for Boulogne — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Boulogne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 50% versus Boulogne 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 25% | Boulogne 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.34 xG and Boulogne 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.889 / defence 0.895 | Boulogne attack 0.707 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.154. Data: 37 Rodez games / 2 Boulogne games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rodez 51% | Draw 28% | Boulogne 20%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Boulogne 5.00. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Rodez 70% | Boulogne 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 29 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 51% | Draw 28% | Boulogne 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG Rodez 1.34 / Boulogne 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.889 / def 0.895 | Boulogne attack 0.707 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Rodez (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Boulogne xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Boulogne kick off?
Rodez vs Boulogne kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 August 2025 at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Boulogne?
Rodez 1 - 0 Boulogne.
Where is Rodez vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Boulogne part of?
Rodez vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 51% chance of winning, Boulogne a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Rodez and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Boulogne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rodez and Boulogne in?
Rodez (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Boulogne (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rodez's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Boulogne's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Boulogne's attack (0.71x) against Rodez's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
The sample (37/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
51%
1.95
28%
3.53
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.07
0.73
Boulogne xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
5%
18.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Rodez and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Rodez and 0.73 for Boulogne, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Rodez have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 0W 3D 1L record — D-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Boulogne's form line: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games, 0.75 PPG, last five L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Boulogne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.75 PPG for Rodez against 0.75 for Boulogne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Rodez are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 0.75 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Early Season
Boulogne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 0W 3D 1L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Rodez
0
Draws
0
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Boulogne?
From 2 meetings on record, Rodez have won 2, Boulogne have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Boulogne 1-2 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Boulogne?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Boulogne see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 50%, Boulogne 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Rodez) and 50% (Boulogne).
On the defensive side: Rodez have failed to score in 50% of games; Boulogne in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Boulogne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Rodez's recent matches and 50% of Boulogne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Rodez's recent games and 50% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Boulogne tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rodez edge out Boulogne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Boulogne 1-0 at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.34 xG and Boulogne 0.73 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.89 / defence 0.90 against Boulogne attack 0.71 / defence 1.11, drawn from 37/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 51% | Draw 28% | Boulogne 20%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 25%, Boulogne 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Boulogne's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 0.75 PPG, Boulogne 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.