PAU 0-3 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs RED Star FC 93 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees RED Star FC 93 travel to Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 September 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAU at Nouste Camp this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RED Star FC 93's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAU 1.30 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for PAU, 0 for RED Star FC 93 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2025, ended 3–1 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
PAU trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
RED Star FC 93 trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 53% versus RED Star FC 93 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 45% | RED Star FC 93 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.26 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.096 / defence 0.875 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.230 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.098. RED Star FC 93 have an above-average attack strength of 1.230 — the away xG of 1.18 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 PAU games / 38 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 38% | Draw 28% | RED Star FC 93 34%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | RED Star FC 93 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: PAU 40% | RED Star FC 93 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 12 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 38% | Draw 28% | RED Star FC 93 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG PAU 1.26 / RED Star FC 93 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.096 / def 0.875 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.230 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: PAU (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.18
RED Star FC 93 xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
PAU vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 September 2025 at Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs RED Star FC 93?
PAU 0 - 3 RED Star FC 93.
Where is PAU vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
PAU vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 38% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both PAU and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and RED Star FC 93?
Record (2 meetings): PAU 2W | Draws 0 | RED Star FC 93 0W.
What form are PAU and RED Star FC 93 in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates PAU's attack at 1.10x the league average against RED Star FC 93's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
38%
2.63
28%
3.64
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
PAU xG
Total xG
2.44
1.18
RED Star FC 93 xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
12%
8.56
10%
10.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are PAU and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for PAU and 1.18 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, PAU have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 12W 14D 12L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RED Star FC 93's form line: 11W 12D 15L from 38 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.32 PPG, RED Star FC 93 on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.84 PPG from 19 outings (10W 5D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — PAU are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, RED Star FC 93 have gone 4W 7D 8L from 19 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAU are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.16 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Early Season
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 12W 14D 12L in their last 38 games (1.32 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 11W 12D 15L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
PAU's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.84 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2024, when PAU won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting RED Star FC 93 specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
PAU
0
Draws
1
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and RED Star FC 93?
From 4 meetings on record, PAU have won 3, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAU and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when RED Star FC 93 0-3 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and RED Star FC 93?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 37%, RED Star FC 93 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (PAU) and 47% (RED Star FC 93).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; RED Star FC 93 in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play RED Star FC 93?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of PAU's recent matches and 58% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of PAU's recent games and 47% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RED Star FC 93 run riot with a 0-3 hammering of PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat PAU 0-3 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.26 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.18 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. PAU fell 1.3 short of their projected output. RED Star FC 93 outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.10 / defence 0.88 against RED Star FC 93 attack 1.23 / defence 0.88, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 38% | Draw 28% | RED Star FC 93 34%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual RED Star FC 93 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 45%, RED Star FC 93 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.32 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RED Star FC 93 win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.