Grenoble 0-2 Amiens – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Grenoble at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grenoble vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Amiens make the trip to Stade des Alpes to face Grenoble in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 December 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Grenoble (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade des Alpes this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Grenoble are significantly better at Stade des Alpes than their overall form suggests.
Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Amiens have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grenoble lead 2W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 1–3 with Amiens winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Grenoble goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 44% versus Amiens 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 46% | Amiens 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.61 xG and Amiens 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.956 / defence 0.839 | Amiens attack 1.006 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 0.988. Amiens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Grenoble's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Grenoble games / 52 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 56% | Draw 25% | Amiens 19%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Amiens 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Grenoble (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Grenoble at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Grenoble 50% | Amiens 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 56% | Draw 25% | Amiens 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG Grenoble 1.61 / Amiens 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.956 / def 0.839 | Amiens attack 1.006 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.371 / away 0.988 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Amiens xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Amiens kick off?
Grenoble vs Amiens kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Amiens?
Grenoble 0 - 2 Amiens.
Where is Grenoble vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Amiens part of?
Grenoble vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 56% chance of winning, Amiens a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Grenoble and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Amiens?
Record (6 meetings): Grenoble 2W | Draws 1 | Amiens 3W.
What form are Grenoble and Amiens in?
Grenoble (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Amiens (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Grenoble's attack at 0.96x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (1.01x) against Grenoble's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
56%
1.79
25%
4.02
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.44
0.83
Amiens xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
4%
25.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.7 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Grenoble and 0.83 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Amiens?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Grenoble have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 18W 15D 19L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amiens's form line: 18W 19D 15L from 52 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Grenoble against 1.40 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Grenoble have posted 1.62 PPG from 26 outings (11W 9D 6L).
On the road, Amiens have gone 8W 7D 11L from 26 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Grenoble are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.02 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Amiens in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 18W 15D 19L in their last 52 games (1.33 PPG), while Amiens have gone 18W 19D 15L in their last 52 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Amiens away?
Grenoble's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.62 PPG; Amiens away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Amiens in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Grenoble have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Amiens won 4-1 on 11 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grenoble have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Grenoble
1
Draws
4
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Amiens?
From 10 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 5, Amiens have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Grenoble 2-1 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Amiens?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 42%, Amiens 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Grenoble) and 42% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Amiens in 31%; Grenoble have failed to score in 38% of games; Amiens in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Grenoble's recent matches and 38% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Grenoble's recent games and 42% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Amiens tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Amiens in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Amiens cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Grenoble.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Grenoble 0-2 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.61 xG and Amiens 0.83 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Grenoble fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Amiens outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.96 / defence 0.84 against Amiens attack 1.01 / defence 1.23, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 56% | Draw 25% | Amiens 19%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Amiens win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 46%, Amiens 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Amiens's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.33 PPG, Amiens 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.