Estac Troyes 0-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Annecy make the trip to Stade de l'Aube to face Estac Troyes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Monday 20 January 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Estac Troyes have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stade de l'Aube this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Annecy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Annecy have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Estac Troyes, 1.50 for Annecy — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Estac Troyes lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Annecy winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Estac Troyes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 48% versus Annecy 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 54% | Annecy 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.46 xG and Annecy 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.017 / defence 0.946 | Annecy attack 1.137 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.015. Data: 56 Estac Troyes games / 56 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 46% | Draw 26% | Annecy 28%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Annecy 3.57. Estac Troyes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Estac Troyes 30% | Annecy 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Monday 20 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 46% | Draw 26% | Annecy 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Estac Troyes 1.46 / Annecy 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 1.017 / def 0.946 | Annecy attack 1.137 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Annecy xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Annecy kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Annecy kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 20 January 2025 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Annecy?
Estac Troyes 0 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Annecy part of?
Estac Troyes vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 46% chance of winning, Annecy a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Estac Troyes and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Annecy?
Record (3 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 2 | Annecy 1W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Annecy in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Annecy (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (1.14x) against Estac Troyes's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
46%
2.19
26%
3.83
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.56
1.09
Annecy xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
7%
15.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.09 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Estac Troyes have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 15W 18D 23L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy's form line: 20W 16D 20L from 56 games, 1.36 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Estac Troyes against 1.36 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Estac Troyes have posted 1.37 PPG from 27 outings (10W 7D 10L).
On the road, Annecy have gone 9W 8D 10L from 27 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.34 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Annecy in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 15W 18D 23L in their last 56 games (1.12 PPG), while Annecy have gone 20W 16D 20L in their last 56 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Annecy away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.37 PPG; Annecy away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Annecy in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Estac Troyes have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Estac Troyes
2
Draws
2
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Annecy?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 2, Annecy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Annecy 1-2 Estac Troyes.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 56%, Annecy 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Estac Troyes and 63% for Annecy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Annecy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Estac Troyes's games and 63% of Annecy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Estac Troyes's matches and 63% of Annecy's.
Do Estac Troyes and Annecy tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Annecy in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat Estac Troyes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Estac Troyes 0-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.46 xG and Annecy 1.09 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Estac Troyes fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against Annecy attack 1.14 / defence 1.10, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 46% | Draw 26% | Annecy 28%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 54%, Annecy 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Annecy's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.12 PPG, Annecy 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.