Dunkerque 1-0 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dunkerque vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Dunkerque welcome Saint Etienne to Stade Marcel-Tribut. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque at Stade Marcel-Tribut this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Marcel-Tribut this season.
Saint Etienne — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Saint Etienne have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dunkerque 1.10 PPG, Saint Etienne 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dunkerque, 1 for Saint Etienne and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Saint Etienne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dunkerque in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Saint Etienne in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 36% versus Saint Etienne 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dunkerque 41% | Saint Etienne 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 0.66 xG and Saint Etienne 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.629 / defence 1.413 | Saint Etienne attack 0.905 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.105. Dunkerque's attack strength of 0.629 is below the league average — the 0.66 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Dunkerque games / 60 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 17% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 55%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 5.88 | Draw 3.70 | Saint Etienne 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Saint Etienne (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 20% | Saint Etienne 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 17% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 36% | xG Dunkerque 0.66 / Saint Etienne 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.629 / def 1.413 | Saint Etienne attack 0.905 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.66
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Saint Etienne xG
36%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Dunkerque vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Saint Etienne?
Dunkerque 1 - 0 Saint Etienne.
Where is Dunkerque vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Saint Etienne part of?
Dunkerque vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 17% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Dunkerque and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Saint Etienne?
Record (1 meetings): Dunkerque 0W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 1W.
What form are Dunkerque and Saint Etienne in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Saint Etienne (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dunkerque's attack at 0.63x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
17%
5.81
27%
3.64
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
12.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.66
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.07
1.41
Saint Etienne xG
5.81
17%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
52%
1.93
Win to Nil
4%
23.87
29%
3.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 17.9 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 0.66 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.41 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Saint Etienne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Dunkerque have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 5W 5D 12L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne's form line: 9W 5D 8L from 22 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Saint Etienne are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dunkerque.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dunkerque have posted 0.40 PPG from 10 outings (1W 1D 8L). That actually lags their 0.91 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dunkerque are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 0.95 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 5W 5D 12L in their last 22 games (0.91 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 9W 5D 8L in their last 22 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Saint Etienne away?
Saint Etienne's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 0.40 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Dunkerque's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dunkerque
0
Draws
2
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Saint Etienne?
From 4 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 2, Saint Etienne have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Saint Etienne 2-1 Dunkerque.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dunkerque 20% BTTS, Saint Etienne 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Dunkerque and 30% for Saint Etienne.
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne in 50%; Dunkerque have failed to score in 70% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 40% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Dunkerque's recent games and 30% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dunkerque defy the odds to beat Saint Etienne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Saint Etienne 1-0 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 0.66 xG and Saint Etienne 1.41 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Saint Etienne landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.63 / defence 1.41 against Saint Etienne attack 0.91 / defence 0.86, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 17% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 55%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Dunkerque win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 41%, Saint Etienne 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Dunkerque winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dunkerque (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.