Angers 2-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Angers at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Raymond Kopa plays host to Angers versus Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Angers have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Angers's home record at Stade Raymond Kopa: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Raymond Kopa. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Angers are significantly better at Stade Raymond Kopa than their overall form suggests.
Rodez's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rodez have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Angers's favour (2.00 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Angers 0W, Rodez 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 1–4 with Rodez winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Angers — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Rodez — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 51% versus Rodez 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 56% | Rodez 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.98 xG and Rodez 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 1.216 / defence 0.787 | Rodez attack 1.167 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.093. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Angers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Angers's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 22 Angers games / 59 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 60% | Draw 21% | Rodez 19%. Fair-value odds: Angers 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Rodez 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Angers (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Angers at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Angers 20% | Rodez 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 60% | Draw 21% | Rodez 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Angers 1.98 / Rodez 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 1.216 / def 0.787 | Rodez attack 1.167 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Angers (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Rodez xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Rodez kick off?
Angers vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Rodez?
Angers 2 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Angers vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Rodez part of?
Angers vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 60% chance of winning, Rodez a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Angers and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Rodez?
Record (1 meetings): Angers 0W | Draws 0 | Rodez 1W.
What form are Angers and Rodez in?
Angers (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Rodez (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Angers's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.17x) against Angers's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 22/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
60%
1.66
21%
4.69
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Angers xG
Total xG
2.99
1.00
Rodez xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
14%
7.26
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
3%
39.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Angers and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Angers and 1.00 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Rodez?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Angers come into this having played 59 games, going 17W 9D 33L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.25 PPG from 59 outings (18W 20D 21L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Angers against 1.25 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Angers's home form reads 12W 4D 13L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.17 points per game from 29 outings (8W 10D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Angers are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.25 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Rodez in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 17W 9D 33L in their last 59 games (1.02 PPG), while Rodez have gone 18W 20D 21L in their last 59 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Rodez away?
Angers's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.38 PPG; Rodez away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Angers
0
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Rodez?
From 2 meetings on record, Angers have won 1, Rodez have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Angers 2-1 Rodez.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Rodez see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 59%, Rodez 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Angers) and 48% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Rodez in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Angers's games and 55% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Angers vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Angers's recent games and 48% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Rodez tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Rodez in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Angers edge out Rodez 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Rodez 2-1 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.98 xG and Rodez 1.00 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 1.22 / defence 0.79 against Rodez attack 1.17 / defence 1.34, drawn from 22/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 60% | Draw 21% | Rodez 19%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 56%, Rodez 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Rodez's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.02 PPG, Rodez 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.