Clermont Foot vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Clermont Foot (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Clermont Foot face Guingamp.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Clermont Foot host Guingamp at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 23 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Clermont Foot — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Clermont Foot have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stade Gabriel Montpied — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Clermont Foot have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Clermont Foot have won 3, Guingamp 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Clermont Foot winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 59% versus Guingamp 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 44% | Guingamp 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.07 xG and Guingamp 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.757 / defence 0.760 | Guingamp attack 0.889 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.276. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Clermont Foot's defence rating of 0.760 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Clermont Foot games / 39 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 37% | Draw 37% | Guingamp 26%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.70 | Draw 2.70 | Guingamp 3.85. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 50% | Guingamp 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 37% | Draw 37% | Guingamp 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 41% | xG Clermont Foot 1.07 / Guingamp 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.757 / def 0.760 | Guingamp attack 0.889 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Guingamp xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Guingamp kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Guingamp is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 23 October 2026 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Guingamp part of?
Clermont Foot vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 37% chance of winning, Guingamp a 26% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Clermont Foot and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Guingamp?
Record (4 meetings): Clermont Foot 3W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Guingamp in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Guingamp (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.76x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
37%
2.70
37%
2.72
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
1.93
0.86
Guingamp xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
9%
11.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 12.5 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 0.86 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 9W 14D 16L record — D-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp's form line: 11W 12D 16L from 39 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 1.05 PPG, Guingamp on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.20 PPG from 20 outings (5W 9D 6L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 4W 6D 10L from 20 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.26 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 9W 14D 16L in their last 39 games (1.05 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 11W 12D 16L in their last 39 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Guingamp away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.20 PPG; Guingamp away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Clermont Foot go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2024, when Clermont Foot won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Clermont Foot
0
Draws
1
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 3, Guingamp have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Clermont Foot 1-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Guingamp?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 60%, Guingamp 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Clermont Foot) and 65% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 35% of games; Guingamp in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Clermont Foot's games and 65% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 65% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Guingamp tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.