Angers 2-0 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Angers at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Bordeaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bordeaux travel to Stade Raymond-Kopa to take on Angers in Ligue 2 (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Angers have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Angers at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bordeaux stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Bordeaux's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Angers are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Angers, 0 for Bordeaux and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 May 2022, ended Angers 4–1 Bordeaux — a Angers win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Angers trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Bordeaux trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 55% versus Bordeaux 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 62% | Bordeaux 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.21 xG and Bordeaux 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 1.007 / defence 0.824 | Bordeaux attack 0.765 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.075. Bordeaux's attack rating of 0.765 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.68. Data: built from Angers's last 10 games and Bordeaux's last 47.
Result probabilities: Angers 49% | Draw 30% | Bordeaux 21%. Fair-value odds: Angers 2.05 | Draw 3.29 | Bordeaux 4.80. Angers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Bordeaux's lower xG of 0.68 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Angers as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Angers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Angers's last 10 home games and Bordeaux's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Angers 50% (last 10 home games) | Bordeaux 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 11 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 49% | Draw 30% | Bordeaux 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Angers 1.21 / Bordeaux 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 1.007 / def 0.824 | Bordeaux attack 0.765 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Angers (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Angers xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Bordeaux xG
34%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Angers vs Bordeaux FAQs
What time does Angers vs Bordeaux kick off?
Angers vs Bordeaux kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Bordeaux?
Angers 2 - 0 Bordeaux.
Where is Angers vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Bordeaux part of?
Angers vs Bordeaux is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 11) (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 49% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Angers and Bordeaux will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Angers vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Angers's attack at 1.01x the league average against Bordeaux's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Angers's last 10 games and Bordeaux's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
49%
2.05
30%
3.29
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Angers xG
Total xG
1.88
0.68
Bordeaux xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.90
66%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
6%
16.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 10.3 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 12.4 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Angers vs Bordeaux Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Angers and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Angers and 0.68 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Angers have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 10W 7D 30L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Bordeaux's form line: 23W 12D 12L from 47 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Bordeaux are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Angers.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Angers have posted 0.96 PPG from their last 23 home games (6W 4D 13L).
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 8W 7D 8L from their last 23 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Angers are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.26 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
Angers (Home) vs Bordeaux (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Angers
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
❓ Angers vs Bordeaux Form FAQs
What form are Angers and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 10W 7D 30L in their last 47 games (0.79 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 23W 12D 12L in their last 47 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Bordeaux away?
Bordeaux's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 0.96 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Angers or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 29 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 May 2022, when Angers won Angers 4-1 Bordeaux.
Angers's record when hosting Bordeaux specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Angers
1
Draws
1
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Angers vs Bordeaux H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Bordeaux?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Angers have won 2, Bordeaux have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Angers and Bordeaux last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 January 2024: Bordeaux 1-0 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Bordeaux?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 70%, Bordeaux 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Angers) and 39% (Bordeaux).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux in 35%; Bordeaux in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Angers vs Bordeaux Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Angers and Bordeaux matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of Angers's recent matches and 35% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Angers and Bordeaux matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Angers's recent games and 39% of Bordeaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Bordeaux matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Angers's recent matches and 70% of Bordeaux's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Angers cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bordeaux.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Bordeaux 2-0 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.21 xG and Bordeaux 0.68 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 1.01 / defence 0.82 against Bordeaux attack 0.77 / defence 0.94, drawn from 10/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 49% | Draw 30% | Bordeaux 21%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 62%, Bordeaux 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Bordeaux's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bordeaux arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Angers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Angers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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