Rodez 1-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Paul Lignon plays host to Rodez versus Bastia in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stade Paul Lignon this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Rodez's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Bastia's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Rodez 2W, Bastia 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.2 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Bastia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 55% versus Bastia 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 43% | Bastia 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 2.04 xG and Bastia 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.489 / defence 1.168 | Bastia attack 0.772 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.075. Rodez carry an above-average attack strength of 1.489 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 47 Rodez games / 48 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 62% | Draw 21% | Bastia 17%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Bastia 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Rodez (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 60% | Bastia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 62% | Draw 21% | Bastia 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 54% | xG Rodez 2.04 / Bastia 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.489 / def 1.168 | Bastia attack 0.772 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Rodez (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Bastia xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Bastia kick off?
Rodez vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Bastia?
Rodez 1 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Rodez vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Bastia part of?
Rodez vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 62% chance of winning, Bastia a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rodez and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Bastia?
Record (4 meetings): Rodez 2W | Draws 1 | Bastia 1W.
What form are Rodez and Bastia in?
Rodez (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Bastia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rodez's attacking strength (1.49x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.77x) against Rodez's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
62%
1.61
21%
4.83
17%
5.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Rodez xG
Total xG
3.01
0.97
Bastia xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
5.83
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
13%
7.69
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
2%
44.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Rodez and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Rodez and 0.97 for Bastia, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Bastia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 15W 15D 17L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia's form line: 20W 11D 16L from 47 games, 1.51 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Rodez against 1.51 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.29 PPG from 24 outings (8W 7D 9L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 6W 7D 11L from 24 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bastia's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.32 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Bastia in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 15W 15D 17L in their last 47 games (1.28 PPG), while Bastia have gone 20W 11D 16L in their last 47 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Bastia away?
Rodez's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.29 PPG; Bastia away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Rodez or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Bastia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rodez
4
Draws
2
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Bastia?
From 10 meetings on record, Rodez have won 4, Bastia have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Rodez 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Bastia?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 62%, Bastia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Rodez) and 42% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Rodez have failed to score in 29% of games; Bastia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Rodez's recent matches and 46% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Rodez's recent games and 42% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Bastia tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bastia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez and Bastia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez and Bastia finished level at 1-1 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 2.04 xG and Bastia 0.97 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Rodez fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.49 / defence 1.17 against Bastia attack 0.77 / defence 1.07, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 62% | Draw 21% | Bastia 17%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 43%, Bastia 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.28 PPG, Bastia 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.