Amiens 0-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Amiens welcome Annecy to Stade de la Licorne. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Amiens have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Amiens's home record at Stade de la Licorne: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Annecy have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Amiens 1.70 PPG, Annecy 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Amiens, 2 for Annecy and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2025, ended 1–0 with Amiens winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Amiens in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Annecy in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 50% versus Annecy 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 56% | Annecy 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.75 xG and Annecy 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.094 / defence 1.158 | Annecy attack 0.834 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.156. Data: 36 Amiens games / 36 Annecy games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Amiens 51% | Draw 26% | Annecy 23%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Annecy 4.35. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Amiens 60% | Annecy 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade de la Licorne • Kick-off: Friday 22 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 51% | Draw 26% | Annecy 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Amiens 1.75 / Annecy 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.094 / def 1.158 | Annecy attack 0.834 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Amiens (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Annecy xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Annecy kick off?
Amiens vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 August 2025 at Stade de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Annecy?
Amiens 0 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Amiens vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Annecy part of?
Amiens vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 51% chance of winning, Annecy a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Amiens and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Annecy?
Record (6 meetings): Amiens 3W | Draws 1 | Annecy 2W.
What form are Amiens and Annecy in?
Amiens (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Annecy (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Amiens's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.91
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.86
1.12
Annecy xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
4%
24.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.1 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Amiens and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Amiens and 1.12 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Amiens's recent record stands at 14W 5D 17L from 36 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Amiens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 12L across 36 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.31 PPG, Annecy on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 11W 3D 4L from 18 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Amiens are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Annecy's away record stands at 5W 5D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Amiens are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.22 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Annecy in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 14W 5D 17L in their last 36 games (1.31 PPG), while Annecy have gone 14W 10D 12L in their last 36 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Annecy away?
Amiens's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 2.00 PPG; Annecy away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Amiens or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Annecy in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Amiens and Annecy runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Annecy have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2024, when Annecy won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Amiens's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Amiens
1
Draws
4
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, Amiens have won 3, Annecy have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Annecy 2-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 56%, Annecy 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Amiens) and 39% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Annecy in 33%; Annecy in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Amiens's recent matches and 44% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Amiens's recent games and 39% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Annecy tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Annecy in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat Amiens 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Amiens 0-1 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.75 xG and Annecy 1.12 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Amiens fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.09 / defence 1.16 against Annecy attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 51% | Draw 26% | Annecy 23%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Annecy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 56%, Annecy 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Annecy's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.31 PPG, Annecy 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.