Nice 1-1 Lorient – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Nice at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nice vs Lorient encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Nice welcome Lorient to Allianz Riviera. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Nice have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Riviera, Nice have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Riviera.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lorient stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lorient, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lorient away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Nice are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Nice, 1 for Lorient and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Nice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Nice in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Lorient in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 45% versus Lorient 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 46% | Lorient 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.65 xG and Lorient 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 1.044 / defence 0.736 | Lorient attack 0.940 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.261. Nice's defence rating of 0.736 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Nice games / 65 Lorient games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 55% | Draw 27% | Lorient 19%. Fair-value odds: Nice 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Lorient 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Nice (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nice are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Nice 40% | Lorient 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Lorient | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 55% | Draw 27% | Lorient 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Nice 1.65 / Lorient 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 1.044 / def 0.736 | Lorient attack 0.940 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Nice (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Nice xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Lorient xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Lorient kick off?
Nice vs Lorient kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Lorient?
Nice 1 - 1 Lorient.
Where is Nice vs Lorient being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Lorient part of?
Nice vs Lorient is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Lorient?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 55% chance of winning, Lorient a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Lorient?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Nice and Lorient will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Lorient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Lorient?
Record (3 meetings): Nice 2W | Draws 0 | Lorient 1W.
What form are Nice and Lorient in?
Nice (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Lorient (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nice's attack rating (1.04) and Lorient's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lorient's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
55%
1.83
27%
3.72
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Nice xG
Total xG
2.52
0.87
Lorient xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
4%
28.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Lorient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Nice and Lorient expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Nice and 0.87 for Lorient, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Lorient?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Nice have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 31W 17D 17L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lorient's form line: 20W 19D 26L from 65 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. The sample for Lorient is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Nice are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lorient.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Nice have posted 1.69 PPG from 32 outings (15W 9D 8L).
On the road, Lorient have gone 7W 10D 15L from 32 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nice are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Lorient are on 1.15 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Lorient
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Lorient in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 31W 17D 17L in their last 65 games (1.69 PPG), while Lorient have gone 20W 19D 26L in their last 65 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Lorient away?
Nice's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.69 PPG; Lorient away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Nice or Lorient been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Lorient in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nice and Lorient runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2024, when Nice won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nice's record when hosting Lorient specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Nice
4
Draws
2
Lorient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Lorient?
From 9 meetings on record, Nice have won 3, Lorient have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Lorient last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Nice 0-0 Lorient.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Lorient?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 47%, Lorient 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Nice) and 56% (Lorient).
On the defensive side: Nice keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Nice have failed to score in 31% of games; Lorient in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Lorient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Lorient?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Nice's recent matches and 59% of Lorient's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Lorient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Nice's recent games and 56% of Lorient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Lorient tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Lorient in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nice and Lorient share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice and Lorient finished level at 1-1 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.65 xG and Lorient 0.87 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.04 / defence 0.74 against Lorient attack 0.94 / defence 1.13, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 55% | Draw 27% | Lorient 19%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 46%, Lorient 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Lorient's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lorient (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.